2022 Winter Thrust RYC/RJCC

Y-10 Women's Saber

Saturday, February 5, 2022 at 2:30 PM

ROCKLAND COMMUNITY COLLEGE - Suffern, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	GONG Joy	1%	6%	23%	38%	26%	6%
2	LEOU Korina	-	4%	21%	39%	29%	6%
3	FOSS Persephone	-	1%	12%	37%	38%	12%
3	ZHANG Ashley	13%	35%	34%	15%	3%	-
5	CASTELO Soleil	-	4%	19%	40%	30%	7%
6	FUNG Iris	-	-	3%	19%	40%	31%	7%
7	GONZALEZ Veronika	-	1%	12%	39%	38%	10%
8	YERENKOVA Ameliia	8%	38%	37%	14%	2%	-
9	GOLEN Grace	4%	26%	41%	24%	5%	-
10	NEMORIN Rei	-	4%	19%	36%	31%	9%
11	MELE Alexis	-	2%	14%	38%	37%	9%
12	PARK Haylie	1%	13%	41%	34%	11%	1%
13	BROWN Piper	31%	42%	21%	5%	1%	-
14	HURÉ Maïa	12%	34%	35%	16%	3%	-
15	PEREIRA Izumi	53%	37%	9%	1%	-	-
16	WILSON Lilia	-	2%	13%	31%	37%	17%
17	MULLER Inara	1%	16%	42%	32%	8%	1%	-
18	KWON Ava	-	-	1%	10%	32%	41%	16%
19	CHOI Charlotte	4%	25%	40%	24%	6%	1%
20	REN Katherine	8%	44%	36%	11%	2%	-
21	CONVERSO-PARSONS Maia	73%	25%	2%	< 1%	-	-	-
22	MARGULIS Roxana	8%	42%	37%	12%	1%	-	-
23	WILLER Anna	-	-	1%	9%	31%	41%	18%
24	KATZ Emma	-	2%	19%	43%	30%	5%
25	YOUNG Sienna	-	< 1%	4%	18%	42%	36%
26	WANG Chloe	1%	18%	46%	28%	6%	-
27	KARAVAS Lucy	71%	26%	3%	-	-	-
28	FADEL Emma	3%	27%	42%	23%	5%	-
28	CHEN Chloe	< 1%	2%	12%	30%	37%	19%
30	ONG Katherine	< 1%	3%	18%	36%	30%	11%	1%
31	KABILING Anika Von Marie	< 1%	1%	8%	27%	41%	23%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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