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2022 Winter Thrust RYC/RJCC

Y-14 Women's Foil

Sunday, February 6, 2022 at 8:00 AM

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Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	ORVANANOS Anice	-	-	2%	14%	46%	39%
2	CHEN Renee	-	-	1%	9%	39%	51%
3	ZHENG Julie	-	-	1%	8%	38%	53%
3	YANG Iris	-	-	-	2%	16%	45%	38%
5	CASCONE Emily	-	-	-	4%	29%	67%
6	ZHOU Catherine	-	-	3%	20%	43%	28%	5%
7	DAI Zizhuo (Zizi)	-	3%	21%	45%	27%	4%
8	SHIM Grace	-	1%	6%	26%	43%	24%
9	KAPUSTINA Arina	-	-	-	6%	30%	45%	19%
10	FIELD Julianna	2%	15%	38%	34%	10%	1%
11	MCSHERRY Ava	-	1%	9%	34%	44%	12%
12	SHMAY Anastasia	-	2%	14%	36%	36%	12%
13	KUMAMOTO Shino	-	-	4%	21%	48%	26%
14	PEVZNER Nicole	-	5%	23%	42%	27%	4%
15	FENG Grace	1%	7%	28%	42%	20%	3%
16	LI Han	4%	25%	45%	22%	4%	-
17	WANG Reese	8%	42%	36%	12%	1%	-
18	YANG Emma	-	4%	22%	42%	28%	4%
19	KAPRAN Anastasia	-	5%	24%	43%	23%	5%	-
20	MAJID Inaaya	15%	43%	32%	9%	1%	-
21	LEVY Avery	-	2%	14%	36%	36%	12%
22	LI Eleanor	43%	42%	13%	2%	-	-
23	BURGESS Logan	29%	44%	22%	4%	-	-
24	JOO Natalie	-	1%	8%	33%	46%	13%
25	BERGEL Daphne	4%	23%	42%	25%	5%	-
26	REZA Fukaina	22%	47%	26%	5%	-	-	-
27	HAFEZ Tahiyah	3%	19%	41%	29%	8%	1%
28	GREENLEAF Ella	20%	47%	28%	5%	-	-
29	HAO Danica	4%	24%	42%	25%	4%	-
30	LAO Sophia	5%	26%	43%	21%	4%	-	-
31	POPOVA Polina	22%	49%	24%	4%	-	-
32	LIU Lucy	3%	26%	44%	23%	4%	-
33	JIN Amie	40%	45%	14%	2%	-	-
34	LAZAR Carolina	10%	35%	38%	16%	2%	-
35	KUMAR Ishana	43%	42%	13%	2%	-	-
36	DALBERG Meadow	34%	45%	18%	2%	-	-	-
37	CHANG Victoria	43%	44%	12%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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