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April Championship and NAC

Vet-60 Men's Épée

Saturday, April 13, 2019 at 8:00 AM

Salt Lake City, UT - Salt Lake City, UT, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	TAYLOR Daryl J.	-	-	1%	11%	39%	48%
2	DRAGONETTI Walter E.	-	-	-	-	4%	29%	67%
3	HENZLER Thomas A.	-	1%	8%	28%	43%	20%
3	RIDGE John (Drew) A.	-	3%	23%	43%	26%	4%
5	ALEXANDER Chuck	-	1%	9%	27%	40%	22%
6	SCHNEIDER Charles (Charlie) J.	2%	25%	41%	25%	6%	-
7	MARIANI Lou	-	1%	6%	25%	43%	25%
8	DARRICAU Henri J.	-	1%	9%	29%	40%	20%
9	NEALE James H.	-	3%	23%	42%	27%	5%
9	NEWSOME James L.	-	5%	24%	39%	26%	6%
11	RICHARDS Dick	-	1%	11%	34%	40%	14%
12	BEIHOLD James (Jim) K.	1%	7%	23%	36%	26%	7%
13	KING Charles M.	22%	44%	27%	7%	1%	-
14	MASE James B.	-	3%	16%	37%	34%	9%
15	KING Richard (Dick) M.	20%	52%	24%	4%	-	-
16	DOWNEY Gerard C.	-	1%	21%	43%	29%	6%
17	KAROLAK Dale W.	-	-	1%	9%	35%	46%	9%
18	MOREAU John A.	-	1%	8%	29%	42%	20%
19	ALTMAN Jeff H.	-	3%	20%	44%	27%	5%
20	WEINGARTEN Solomon (Sol)	7%	32%	40%	18%	3%	-
21	LUTTON Thomas (Tom) W.	-	1%	10%	35%	43%	12%
22	GELNAW William (Gypsy) H.	1%	13%	42%	33%	10%	1%
23	SIMMONS Matthew C.	4%	19%	34%	29%	12%	2%
24	WALKER William H.	1%	10%	32%	39%	16%	2%	-
25	WATSON Donald W.	-	2%	13%	33%	37%	13%	1%
26	MCTIGUE J. Michael	-	6%	23%	38%	26%	6%
27	WHEELER Mark C.	1%	9%	29%	37%	20%	4%
28	SCOTT George R.	-	3%	17%	37%	33%	10%
29	GROSS Louis A.	7%	63%	26%	4%	-	-
30	REDDING Russel M.	-	7%	28%	39%	21%	4%
31	KLEIN Johannes	2%	18%	40%	30%	9%	1%	-
32	RESS Michael A.	6%	24%	37%	25%	7%	1%
33	BRUCE II Ommer E.	8%	27%	36%	22%	6%	1%
34	HERMAN Ronald J.	7%	28%	37%	22%	6%	1%
35	KRICK Jon	71%	26%	3%	-	-	-
36	SIMS Wallace F.	18%	50%	27%	5%	-	-
36	ROUSE Joseph (Joe) T.	5%	44%	37%	12%	2%	-
38	MYERS Brent M.	13%	37%	34%	13%	2%	-	-
39	KLUCZYNSKI Mike k.	35%	44%	18%	3%	-	-	-
40	WILSON Victor T.	< 1%	1%	12%	38%	42%	6%
41	SNYDER John W.	36%	42%	18%	4%	-	-
42	POMPIAN Mark	82%	17%	1%	-	-	-
43	GRAVIS Martin V.	67%	28%	5%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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