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Y-10 Women's Foil

Sunday, March 6, 2022 at 8:00 AM

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Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SUN Chloe	-	-	-	-	3%	25%	72%
2	JOO Natalie	-	3%	16%	34%	32%	13%	1%
3	FIELD Elizabeth	-	1%	6%	21%	36%	28%	8%
3	ZOU Ella	-	1%	9%	31%	42%	16%
5	TSIMIKLIS aphrodite	-	1%	7%	23%	36%	26%	7%
6	FENG Grace	-	-	1%	8%	26%	40%	24%
7	CULLIVAN Sienna	-	-	3%	19%	44%	34%
8	ORRINGER Lottie	1%	10%	32%	38%	16%	2%
9	LUO Miranda	-	-	1%	8%	26%	42%	24%
9	ZHANG Soleil C.	-	-	-	-	3%	26%	71%
11	LIU Enjia sherry	-	1%	5%	21%	41%	32%
12	BROWN Lola	-	-	3%	14%	37%	39%	7%
13	PARK Zena	-	-	3%	17%	43%	33%	4%
14	HARRIS Julia	-	5%	18%	33%	29%	13%	2%
15	ZHANG Gwenyth	3%	15%	33%	32%	15%	2%
16	OKADA MISAKI	-	-	3%	17%	36%	33%	10%
17	EYER Brooke	1%	7%	23%	35%	25%	8%	1%
18	DUAN Sophie	-	-	3%	18%	43%	32%	4%
19	HAN Gian	-	3%	14%	30%	33%	17%	3%
20	LIN Yunong	6%	26%	37%	24%	7%	1%	-
21	WANG Amabel	2%	14%	31%	33%	16%	3%
22	LI savannah	7%	27%	37%	22%	6%	1%	-
23	ZHANG Constance	2%	14%	36%	35%	12%	1%	-
24	HUTH Caroline	3%	15%	31%	31%	16%	4%	-
25	LI Olivia	-	4%	17%	35%	33%	10%	1%
26	MCFARLANE Asha	11%	31%	35%	18%	4%	-
27	SHAOOLIAN Maya	39%	43%	15%	2%	-	-
28	WANG DINA C.	49%	38%	12%	2%	-	-	-
29	BERNDT Camryn	-	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	24%
30	KIM Sydney	5%	22%	35%	27%	9%	1%
30	HAN Mia	6%	24%	36%	25%	8%	1%
32	TANG Melody Fujiao	2%	14%	36%	34%	13%	1%
33	RAFFAELE Nancy	-	1%	9%	26%	36%	22%	5%
34	STEIXNER Mia	8%	34%	39%	17%	3%	-	-
35	MUMMANENI Samyuta	2%	14%	33%	32%	15%	3%	-
36	SAIFEE Zahra	6%	25%	37%	25%	7%	1%	-
37	NEWMAN-GILLIGAN Callahan	19%	40%	30%	9%	1%	-	-
38	SHAOOLIAN Alexa	22%	40%	28%	9%	1%	-	-
39	MORENO Josefina	3%	17%	35%	31%	12%	2%	-
39	OWEN Alexandra	11%	32%	35%	17%	4%	-	-
41	BAULIN Zoya	4%	23%	41%	26%	6%	-	-
42	NAYGAS Alexandra	20%	38%	29%	11%	2%	-	-
43	FRASER Morgan	3%	14%	31%	32%	17%	4%	-
44	KIM Sophia	6%	23%	35%	25%	9%	2%	-
45	HAFEZ Sahar	16%	44%	31%	8%	1%	-
46	ALLEN Sophia	3%	23%	38%	26%	8%	1%	-
47	TEPMAN Zoey	45%	41%	13%	2%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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