Fairfax Challenge Fall RYC/RJCC & Y8 (Non-Regional)

Y-14 Men's Foil

Sunday, September 11, 2022 at 8:00 AM

Fredericksburg Expo & Conference Center - Hall A & B - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LEE Brendan	-	-	4%	23%	45%	28%
2	MAO Lucas	-	3%	13%	32%	36%	16%
3	TANG Albert	-	-	3%	16%	42%	39%
3	SONG Noel	-	-	5%	30%	45%	20%
5	YAO Bradley	-	-	1%	9%	40%	50%
6	SHEN Mingxuan	-	5%	21%	36%	27%	9%	1%
7	SHENG Dalton	-	1%	10%	27%	35%	22%	5%
8	LI Lianhan	1%	18%	36%	30%	12%	2%	-
9	CHOI JIAN	-	-	3%	15%	33%	35%	14%
10	TANG August L.	-	-	4%	22%	45%	29%
11	TANG Alexander L.	-	-	1%	12%	42%	44%
12	HE Kyle	-	1%	10%	42%	39%	9%
13	MOE Annan	-	3%	14%	35%	37%	11%
14	PARRISH Evan	-	1%	9%	33%	43%	14%
15	ZHANG Lucas	6%	25%	36%	24%	8%	1%
16	GRIFFITH MCALLISTER Thomas	1%	11%	31%	34%	18%	4%	-
17	ZHAO Adam	-	5%	19%	35%	31%	10%
18	ZHANG Alex	-	4%	22%	43%	27%	5%
19	JIANG Bowang	-	1%	11%	39%	38%	11%
20	TANG Terry	-	1%	7%	28%	43%	21%
21	YU William	7%	27%	38%	23%	6%	-
22	LU Nathan	22%	40%	28%	9%	2%	-
23	SEMP Iain	-	-	7%	36%	44%	13%
24	YOON Aiden	-	-	4%	18%	36%	31%	10%
25	HUA Aaron	2%	15%	34%	34%	14%	2%
26	BOWLES Kevin	8%	32%	40%	17%	3%	-
27	LEE JISUNG	16%	39%	32%	11%	1%	-
28	JIN Andy	5%	23%	39%	26%	7%	1%
29	LEE SIYUN	20%	40%	29%	10%	1%	-
30	ZAIDI Adil	30%	49%	19%	2%	-	-
31	VADEN Oliver	1%	10%	27%	36%	21%	5%
32	TSENG Lucas	29%	45%	22%	4%	-	-
33	DOELL Ethan	1%	9%	30%	38%	18%	3%
34	BABER Shaheer	35%	48%	16%	1%	-	-
35	SHAW Spencer	18%	43%	31%	8%	1%	-
36	LIU Robert	21%	47%	28%	4%	-	-
37	SUN Andy	4%	28%	45%	20%	4%	-
38	GREENE Max	42%	45%	12%	1%	-	-
39	POWELL Sean	29%	45%	22%	4%	-	-
40	NOLAN Tyler	5%	30%	49%	15%	2%	-
41	HARPER Wesley	5%	22%	36%	27%	9%	1%
42	CHEN Hendrick	11%	33%	36%	17%	3%	-
43	GADIYARAM Madhav	80%	19%	2%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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