Houston Fall RYC and RJCC

Y-12 Men's Épée

Saturday, September 17, 2022 at 11:00 AM

Alliance Fencing Academy - Houston, TX, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	ELHUSSEINI Kyle	-	-	-	5%	32%	62%
2	ELHUSSEINI Dylan	-	-	1%	7%	33%	59%
3	LIOZNYANSKY Miron	-	4%	19%	37%	31%	8%
3	PARKER Isaiah	-	-	4%	20%	44%	32%
5	MEHROTRA Neel	-	-	4%	19%	42%	35%
6	KUANG Bryan	2%	17%	39%	31%	10%	1%
7	LI Tristan	-	6%	28%	44%	19%	2%
8	HERNDON Liam	-	2%	12%	33%	39%	15%
9	OLSON Joseph	14%	38%	34%	12%	2%	-
10	QIAN Irvine	-	2%	14%	35%	38%	11%
11	YILMAZ Tarik	-	1%	9%	34%	46%	11%
12	GORBUNOV Gleb	-	1%	7%	25%	41%	26%
13	LEE Aiden	4%	23%	41%	27%	4%	-
14	GRIGORENKO Gleb E.	13%	35%	35%	14%	3%	-
15	MAYORCA Ernesto	-	1%	13%	44%	37%	5%
16	SATHYAN Dev	33%	42%	20%	4%	-	-
17	CHOW Austin	5%	25%	38%	24%	7%	1%
18	ABDURAIMOV Ulugbek	15%	38%	33%	12%	2%	-
19	ROBERTS Arthur	6%	28%	39%	22%	5%	-
20	TUMULA Arihaan	6%	32%	42%	18%	2%	-
21	LIU Austin	5%	24%	38%	26%	7%	-
22	ZHOU Max	3%	20%	38%	29%	9%	1%
23	FALKIEWICZ Alec R.	10%	37%	38%	13%	1%	-
24	SRINIVAS Rohan	1%	10%	30%	37%	19%	3%
25	VAN RIET Stefan	1%	9%	28%	38%	20%	3%
26	HIGGINS SEBASTIAN	12%	36%	36%	14%	2%	-
27	ZHANG Shiqi	2%	15%	35%	33%	12%	2%
28	MUTTART JR Patrick	47%	41%	11%	1%	-	-
29	TORRES Alexander	16%	40%	34%	10%	1%	-
30	FANG Daniel	32%	42%	21%	5%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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