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Div II Women's Foil

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Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	RANDOLPH Piper	-	-	-	4%	19%	41%	36%
2	KALOPER Sofia	-	-	1%	8%	36%	56%
3	CHEN Cynthia	-	-	-	-	5%	32%	63%
3	LEE Ji Ahn	-	-	2%	14%	37%	38%	8%
5	KOROL Dana	-	2%	11%	34%	42%	11%
6	DO Leila	-	5%	20%	35%	28%	10%	1%
7	RAO Sonia D.	-	2%	14%	34%	34%	14%	2%
8	WELBORN Calissa	-	7%	26%	36%	23%	7%	1%
9	FUNG Vera	-	2%	10%	28%	36%	21%	4%
10	HOBSON Ava	-	-	4%	17%	37%	33%	9%
11	SUN Emily	4%	22%	39%	28%	7%	-
12	LEE Allison	-	1%	4%	17%	33%	33%	13%
13	PATTERSON Natalia	1%	9%	29%	38%	19%	4%	-
14	FUNG Emma	-	-	-	4%	19%	43%	33%
15	SPOHN Mary S.	1%	8%	24%	33%	24%	9%	1%
16	YANICELLI Sloane	4%	23%	39%	26%	6%	-
17	SHUM Elizabeth	-	1%	7%	24%	38%	25%	6%
18	CHOI Kailyn	-	-	2%	13%	33%	37%	14%
19	KETTELLE Molly	-	-	1%	8%	27%	41%	23%
20	PENG Serena	-	3%	16%	34%	32%	13%	2%
21	ZHENG Zoe	2%	16%	36%	32%	12%	2%	-
22	CASTANEDA Keira	-	2%	12%	29%	34%	18%	4%
23	WANG Brina	2%	14%	32%	32%	15%	3%	-
24	MORALES Paulina	1%	7%	27%	37%	22%	6%	1%
25	CABALU Alaina	-	5%	24%	38%	25%	7%	1%
26	XIE Su	1%	13%	35%	34%	14%	2%	-
27	KO Claire	-	2%	15%	35%	35%	12%	1%
28	WANG Celine S.	28%	43%	24%	6%	1%	-
29	GOEL Riyana	19%	47%	27%	6%	1%	-	-
30	BECKSTEAD Makayla	7%	32%	38%	19%	4%	-	-
31	SHUM Maya	9%	32%	38%	18%	3%	-
32	LIU Jessica	57%	35%	7%	1%	-	-	-
33	LUH Mia P.	-	1%	9%	28%	37%	21%	4%
34	MCKAY Teresa	59%	35%	6%	-	-	-	-
35	ECKSTEIN Harriet A.	3%	21%	38%	27%	9%	1%	-
36	ZAMELIS Madelyn	9%	31%	37%	19%	4%	-	-
37	DOBRINEN Elizabeth	1%	13%	33%	35%	15%	3%	-
38	BALCE Cyril	59%	33%	7%	1%	-	-	-
39	CHALK Victoria	3%	17%	36%	30%	11%	2%	-
40	MUNTON Melina	9%	28%	34%	21%	7%	1%	-
41	LIU Yvonne	42%	42%	14%	2%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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