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Windy City SYC#8 /RCC

Y-10 Men's Épée

Saturday, September 24, 2022 at 4:00 PM

Berto Center / Also known as Felicity School - Deerfield, IL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	DODIN Daniel M.	100%	100%	100%	98%	85%	46%
2	KROPP Wesley	100%	100%	99%	86%	45%
3	PURUSHOTHAM Neil	100%	93%	65%	25%	4%	-
3	CHEN Daniel	100%	95%	61%	18%	2%
5	HEADRICK Liam	100%	87%	51%	17%	3%	-
6	MAZAHERI Fletcher	100%	93%	63%	21%	2%
7	YAO Tristan	100%	99%	90%	60%	20%
8	ZHOU Zhi Matthew	100%	96%	77%	43%	13%	1%
9	KIM Julian	100%	100%	99%	92%	67%	26%
10	WU Matthew	100%	95%	75%	41%	12%	2%
11	PERRY Noah	100%	72%	28%	5%	-
12	YU Andrew	100%	99%	92%	68%	32%	6%
13	HANTOV Adrian	100%	99%	89%	54%	12%
14	KICIMAN Leo	100%	100%	94%	69%	29%	4%
15	TALANDZEVICIUS Tomas	100%	99%	88%	52%	12%
16	PAGLIARINI James	100%	99%	80%	40%	10%	1%
17	MAZAHERI John	100%	96%	77%	42%	13%	1%
18	LEITNER Brek	100%	97%	71%	28%	4%
19	KRAVCHENKO Philip	100%	81%	41%	10%	1%	-
20	BOZMAN Rhys Jeffrey	100%	98%	69%	25%	4%
21	HOWARD Killian	100%	34%	5%	-	-
22	ZHANG Aaron	100%	93%	68%	32%	8%	1%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.