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Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	ABDELGAWAD Abdelrahman	-	-	1%	6%	25%	43%	25%
2	DUELL Jacob P.	-	-	-	-	6%	32%	62%
3	MCKINNEY Isaiah	-	-	-	5%	31%	64%
3	WOODLEY Colin	-	-	3%	18%	45%	34%
5	KLYCZEK Andrew	-	-	-	1%	10%	53%	37%
6	CARTER Austin L.	-	-	2%	18%	50%	29%
6	SHANKS Aidan T.	-	-	3%	21%	54%	22%
8	HAYES Nathan P.	-	-	1%	9%	46%	44%
9	FORMY DUVAL Christopher	-	-	5%	25%	45%	24%
10	EDRALIN Alexander Jordan Q.	-	2%	9%	27%	37%	22%	3%
11	AZIZI Zahl	-	5%	23%	40%	26%	5%
12	POWERS Meredith R.	-	-	3%	19%	45%	34%
13	SEMP Brannon A.	-	3%	17%	39%	35%	6%
14	PRICE Owen	-	-	5%	25%	44%	24%
15	SLACK Mary-Stuart F.	-	2%	18%	41%	32%	8%
16	EDRALIN II Chadwick Q.	-	3%	19%	41%	32%	5%	-
17	MAHNKEN Thomas P.	-	3%	18%	40%	33%	5%
18	NSUBUGA Jeffrey	1%	9%	35%	40%	14%	1%
19	LE Tan	1%	7%	26%	40%	23%	4%	-
20	KASPER Lucia	2%	14%	32%	33%	16%	3%	-
21	HARTMAN Grayson	1%	9%	33%	43%	14%	1%
22	PAQUETTE Emily	5%	22%	35%	26%	9%	2%	-
23	PISTONE Leah	3%	19%	41%	32%	5%	-
24	HERRIES Elsa	21%	54%	22%	3%	-	-
25	REEDER Nicholas W.	5%	26%	39%	23%	5%	-
25	ZIMSKY James	6%	30%	41%	19%	4%	-
27	SHANKS Jennifer	3%	26%	44%	23%	4%	-
28	DELANNES-MOLKA Daniel	6%	28%	39%	22%	5%	-	-
29	HOPSON Ethan	1%	10%	27%	35%	21%	5%	-
30	THOMAS Ryan	21%	47%	26%	5%	-	-
31	KOKE Kristen	25%	48%	23%	4%	-	-
32	TREADWAY Ella	34%	44%	19%	3%	-	-	-
33	ROUNTREE Andrew	18%	40%	31%	10%	1%	-
34	MORRIS Luke	13%	38%	36%	12%	2%	-
35	CHERRY Samuel	34%	44%	19%	3%	-	-
36	MILLER Aidan	1%	10%	40%	37%	11%	1%
37	HOCHSTETTER Robert	12%	38%	36%	12%	1%	-
38	BRUFFEY Thomas	11%	33%	35%	17%	4%	-	-
39	JOHNSON Alex	4%	24%	41%	25%	6%	-
39	GIBSON Karino	43%	42%	13%	2%	-	-
41	KANE Rachel	2%	16%	41%	32%	9%	1%	-
42	CASTILLO Natalie	36%	44%	17%	3%	-	-
42	LIU Angela	13%	41%	34%	10%	1%	-
44	HO Debbie	6%	24%	37%	25%	7%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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