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Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	FENG Leo	-	-	-	1%	11%	39%	49%
2	SU Landon	-	-	-	3%	19%	48%	30%
3	XU Emily T.	2%	13%	29%	32%	18%	5%	-
3	CLARK Keagan	-	1%	7%	28%	46%	19%
5	PATRICK Timothy M.	-	-	1%	8%	38%	54%
5	FENKER William M.	-	-	1%	9%	39%	51%
7	BALDWIN Michael B.	-	-	4%	19%	43%	34%
8	MOLINARO Lawrence	-	-	5%	23%	43%	29%
9	OTT Alexander	-	2%	13%	34%	38%	13%
10	SEMP Brannon A.	-	2%	14%	36%	37%	10%
11	CULLEN Troy A.	-	1%	9%	33%	44%	13%
12	TRAYNOR Jake	2%	14%	38%	34%	11%	1%
13	WALKER Terra	10%	32%	36%	18%	4%	-
14	XU Ivan	3%	23%	46%	23%	4%	-
15	WUNNAVA Elina	20%	39%	29%	10%	2%	-	-
15	SHIFFLETT Parker	-	3%	18%	37%	32%	9%	1%
17	LE Tan	-	1%	6%	22%	38%	28%	6%
18	BUNCHER Michael	-	2%	10%	26%	35%	22%	5%
19	STAM August M.	9%	34%	36%	16%	3%	-
20	ZESSIN Michael A.	1%	7%	27%	40%	22%	4%
21	ZANE Christopher	3%	16%	33%	31%	14%	3%	-
22	CARD Seamus	24%	46%	25%	5%	-	-	-
23	SOPHRONIUS Jeddie	3%	17%	36%	31%	11%	1%
24	ROSADO Leah	11%	37%	35%	14%	2%	-
25	OLIVER Isaac	8%	33%	37%	17%	4%	-
26	REED Michael	5%	26%	40%	24%	5%	-
27	XIE Eric	-	2%	14%	33%	34%	15%	2%
27	URIBE David	8%	30%	38%	20%	4%	-	-
29	CASSIDY Connor J.	19%	43%	29%	8%	1%	-
30	JACKSON Evan	3%	22%	43%	28%	4%	-
31	PARCELL Colby	15%	51%	28%	5%	-	-
32	LEE Matthew	2%	17%	40%	31%	9%	1%	-
33	ROUADY Ryan	1%	9%	28%	37%	21%	5%	-
34	LESTYAN Cat	18%	39%	31%	10%	2%	-
35	WILLIAMS Morgan	4%	19%	34%	28%	12%	2%	-
36	BARR Corinne	6%	57%	32%	5%	-	-
37	KEESEE Devon	4%	28%	44%	20%	3%	-
37	SAKLY Sarah	18%	44%	30%	8%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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