2022 Poujardieu Memorial Fencing Tournament

Senior Mixed Épée

Saturday, October 22, 2022 at 8:30 AM

Henrich Center for Fencing and Intl Sport - Austin, TX, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	FREIMAN Samuel (Sam) E.	-	-	-	1%	8%	36%	55%
2	FRENCH Timothy	-	-	2%	16%	42%	32%	7%
3	ODEN Isaac M.	4%	19%	35%	30%	11%	1%
3	SANCHEZ Emanuel	1%	8%	26%	36%	23%	6%	< 1%
5	MOREAU John A.	-	-	-	1%	10%	37%	51%
5	BROWN Allan	1%	9%	28%	36%	20%	5%	-
7	THAYER Jake T.	-	-	2%	12%	40%	47%
8	DALRYMPLE Sr. Ronald W.	1%	11%	34%	36%	15%	2%	-
9	KASKAN Peter E.	-	-	4%	19%	39%	32%	5%
9	ZUBECK Dominic	-	-	-	5%	26%	44%	24%
11	HUDSON Ryan	2%	14%	33%	34%	15%	2%
12	PHILLIPS Wesley Y.	-	-	7%	26%	38%	24%	5%
13	KORTZ Austin	-	1%	11%	36%	39%	12%	1%
14	VUCINOVICH Brandon	-	1%	8%	29%	39%	20%	3%
15	OBREBSKI Kevin	39%	42%	16%	3%	-	-	-
16	VAN VACTER Thomas	28%	48%	20%	3%	-	-	-
17	MASK Austin	1%	11%	32%	35%	17%	3%	-
18	BISSET Journey	4%	21%	36%	28%	10%	1%
19	GRINBERG Ethan	3%	18%	35%	30%	12%	2%	-
20	MEEDER Logan	-	3%	17%	38%	33%	7%	-
21	VAN VACTER Madelynn	13%	35%	34%	15%	3%	-
22	SPARKS Shaun	23%	45%	26%	5%	-	-	-
22	GOULD Jonas	-	4%	17%	33%	31%	12%	1%
24	ALVAREZ Natalie	24%	40%	26%	9%	2%	-	-
25	LAING Flynt	7%	46%	35%	10%	1%	-	-
26	WILLIAMS Eric	4%	23%	39%	27%	7%	-
27	ABAD carlos	4%	24%	41%	25%	4%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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