Thrust Winter RYC RJCC

Junior Women's Épée

Sunday, February 10, 2019 at 8:00 AM

Suffern, NY - Suffern, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	KULKARNI Diya	-	-	2%	14%	42%	42%
2	DROVETSKY Alexandra M.	-	-	2%	12%	33%	39%	14%
3	LONG Cindy	-	1%	7%	28%	44%	21%
3	LU Junyao	-	-	1%	8%	26%	41%	25%
5	ZHANG Maya	-	4%	18%	35%	31%	11%	1%
6	CHOI Lyla	-	-	3%	14%	32%	36%	15%
7	GABERKORN Nadia	-	-	6%	26%	44%	24%
8	SHAO Ariel	1%	16%	34%	31%	14%	3%	-
9	GANDHI Sedna S.	-	-	-	4%	28%	68%
10	LIN Katie Y.	-	3%	15%	34%	35%	13%
11	BAFFA Arianna M.	-	2%	12%	33%	38%	15%
12	WANG Anne	-	6%	21%	34%	27%	11%	2%
13	SIDDIQUI Ammna K.	2%	16%	35%	33%	12%	1%
14	HUH Anna	-	6%	21%	34%	27%	10%	1%
15	DE JAGER Celine	4%	24%	38%	25%	8%	1%	-
16	BIGGS Amelia F.	< 1%	6%	24%	35%	25%	8%	1%
17	CHAN Elizabeth	-	1%	5%	19%	35%	30%	10%
18	MUELLER Victoria E.	6%	24%	37%	26%	7%	-
19	DOUGLAS Julia F.	1%	11%	37%	36%	13%	2%
20	FALLON Kyle R.	-	2%	12%	34%	39%	12%
21	GOLDBERG Sophie C.	20%	43%	28%	8%	1%	-
22	MCGEE Sophia	1%	9%	28%	35%	21%	6%	1%
23	SMUK Daria A.	1%	7%	25%	38%	25%	5%
24	NI Emma	-	-	3%	18%	43%	36%
25	BENATER Lauren	-	5%	22%	39%	28%	6%
26	ZHAO Yingying	2%	13%	31%	34%	17%	3%
27	CHIODI Isabella M.	4%	21%	38%	28%	8%	1%
28	SZEWC Alexandra	2%	13%	35%	34%	14%	2%
29	LIN Anna F.	4%	21%	37%	29%	9%	1%
30	SAAL Anna	2%	15%	36%	34%	12%	1%
31	YAO Jillian	2%	13%	34%	35%	14%	2%
32	JIAO Lucy G.	6%	25%	36%	24%	8%	1%
33	HAN Jaewon(Leah)	-	4%	23%	42%	26%	5%
34	ZAKHAROV Anne E.	20%	49%	26%	5%	-	-
35	LIN Julia L.	-	8%	26%	37%	22%	6%	1%
36	CORDERO Allison	24%	42%	26%	7%	1%	-
37	PAN Michelle	15%	40%	33%	11%	1%	-
38	HAND Grace	31%	43%	21%	5%	1%	-
39	EBRAHIM Ameera H.	2%	13%	33%	36%	16%	1%
40	APPLEBEE Andralyn	68%	28%	4%	-	-	-	-
41	NICOU Nicole	49%	41%	9%	1%	-	-
42	MOK Chloe R.	25%	42%	25%	7%	1%	-
44	KHITROV Samantha	27%	43%	23%	6%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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