Nashville Challenge RYC/RJCC

Cadet Men's Foil

Sunday, October 23, 2022 at 3:00 PM

Mid-TN Expo - Murfreesbor, TN, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	ELWOOD Sebastian F.	-	-	2%	18%	45%	34%
2	LOVE Aaron	-	-	-	7%	38%	55%
3	QIAN Jason H.	-	-	1%	17%	48%	34%
3	WONG Garrick G.	-	-	-	5%	31%	64%
5	ROSE Ben	-	-	-	1%	9%	37%	53%
6	TANG Albert	-	-	5%	28%	50%	17%
7	DE COQUET Maximilian	-	2%	16%	41%	35%	6%
8	HEARN Christen J.	-	1%	10%	36%	40%	13%
9	ALONSO Vinicius	-	1%	9%	36%	41%	13%
10	WANG Brayden	-	-	2%	13%	37%	39%	10%
11	SAGE Michael P.	-	-	1%	19%	49%	30%
12	LORENZO Alejandro	-	-	2%	13%	44%	41%
13	TANG August L.	-	-	3%	18%	44%	34%
14	BOYKO Miles	-	1%	8%	29%	41%	20%	2%
15	SONG Austin	-	-	9%	36%	41%	13%
16	NEYMAN Sampson	-	2%	12%	38%	38%	11%
17	ZOU Yuming	-	-	5%	24%	48%	23%
18	TANG Alexander L.	-	-	8%	46%	38%	8%
19	IVANENKO Alex	-	8%	32%	41%	17%	2%
20	DANIZ FERNANDO A.	1%	12%	48%	31%	7%	1%
21	THIYAGARAJAA Ari	3%	17%	38%	32%	9%	1%
22	TWEMLOW Sacha	-	9%	34%	40%	15%	1%
23	ALVAREZ ADRIAN ALEJANDRO	1%	9%	38%	40%	12%	1%
24	FAN Yuchen	1%	11%	35%	36%	15%	2%	-
25	GOKCE Ellis	4%	22%	41%	27%	6%	-
26	HARGRAVES Henry	21%	42%	29%	8%	1%	-
27	DING Tommy	1%	11%	38%	39%	11%	1%
28	YANG Ethan J.	1%	21%	60%	16%	1%	-
29	ZHANG Alex	-	5%	25%	41%	24%	5%	-
30	JOHNSON Soren	10%	46%	34%	9%	1%	-
31	PHAN Henry	32%	53%	14%	1%	-	-
32	HADDADIN Karam	39%	45%	14%	2%	-	-	-
33	SU Daniel	20%	43%	29%	7%	1%	-
34	DING Albert	9%	34%	41%	14%	2%	-
35	LIM Joel	36%	47%	15%	2%	-	-
36	ZHANG Bryan	25%	57%	18%	1%	-	-
37	REDONDO Tomas D.	22%	43%	27%	7%	1%	-
38	CAO Kellen	30%	46%	21%	3%	-	-
39	KEITH Jakhari	34%	49%	15%	2%	-	-
40	CHAKRAVARTY Amrik	61%	37%	3%	-	-	-
40	GADIYARAM Madhav	68%	29%	3%	-	-	-
42	KIMURA Ryo	50%	44%	6%	-	-	-
43	FIGUEROA Vincent	27%	50%	20%	3%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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