AFM Youth Epee Cup - Event #1

Y-12 Men's Épée

Sunday, October 23, 2022 at 12:30 PM

AFM Sunnyvale - Sunnyvale, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	WU Steven	18%	47%	33%	2%
2	MANA Arnav	-	4%	19%	37%	30%	8%
3	CLAES Thomas	3%	19%	44%	35%
3	BUROV Artem	-	-	-	-	7%	93%
5	SU Samuel	1%	6%	21%	36%	29%	9%
6	WANG Devin	5%	24%	38%	26%	6%	-
7	MA Ryan	27%	45%	23%	5%	-	-
9	MILLIKAN Aaron	-	3%	14%	33%	35%	14%
10	ZHANG Matthew	4%	22%	38%	27%	8%	1%
11	NICZEWICZ Charles	3%	16%	33%	32%	15%	3%
12	BUENAVENTURA Camden	2%	16%	34%	32%	13%	2%
13	BALUCAN Caelus	-	1%	7%	25%	41%	25%
15	MANA Sameer	12%	39%	38%	11%
16	JAMES Kaden	16%	39%	32%	11%	1%	-
18	DING Max	30%	46%	21%	3%
19	KIL Isaac	15%	42%	34%	8%
20	SRIKANTH Hariharan	-	3%	15%	33%	35%	14%
21	WONG Kingston	1%	8%	25%	36%	24%	6%
23	GUO Luke	24%	40%	26%	8%	1%	-
26	KHUSHRAJ Rohan	10%	32%	37%	18%	3%	-
27	JAO Aaron	26%	45%	25%	4%
29	QUAN Leo	1%	9%	29%	40%	21%	1%
30	BAUMAN Colin	4%	19%	34%	29%	12%	2%
31	STREAM Logan	20%	41%	30%	9%	1%	-
33	KURUGANTI Vivian	-	1%	8%	36%	43%	13%
34	WONG Vansen	3%	19%	38%	31%	9%	-
35	LIU Daniel	7%	34%	43%	16%
36	LUO Alvin (Yueyang) Y.	26%	42%	25%	6%	1%	-
37	GUPTA Hemansh	1%	25%	41%	25%	7%	1%
38	LO Esra	1%	17%	49%	33%
41	VELTKAMP Pablo	2%	29%	46%	19%	3%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.