Neil Lazar RYC/RJCC

Y-14 Women's Foil

Sunday, November 6, 2022 at 8:15 AM

Floyd Little Athletic Center - New Haven, CT, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	MI Aileen	-	-	-	-	2%	19%	79%
2	PAULUS Sloane E.	-	-	1%	12%	42%	44%
3	YANG Emma	-	-	3%	19%	47%	32%
3	LI Eleanor	-	1%	8%	27%	40%	22%	2%
5	WANG Amabel	-	1%	12%	50%	31%	5%
6	BRYZGALOVA Svitlana	-	-	-	1%	17%	82%
7	PEVZNER Nicole	1%	9%	26%	36%	22%	5%
8	SHA Yi Ling	-	-	1%	14%	49%	36%
9	ZHANG Selena	-	-	5%	27%	49%	19%
10	WANG Jasmine	-	-	1%	17%	49%	33%
11	HAO Danica	-	1%	8%	34%	43%	14%
12	KAPRAN Anastasia	1%	8%	26%	37%	23%	5%
13	GREENLEAF Ella	1%	8%	30%	41%	18%	3%
14	CHO Emily (Euran)	-	4%	21%	43%	29%	2%
15	FIELD Elizabeth	-	5%	22%	44%	27%	2%
16	WANG Joanna	-	6%	22%	37%	27%	7%	-
17	TANG Melody Fujiao	-	2%	16%	43%	32%	7%
18	ZHOU Sophia	-	7%	30%	43%	18%	2%
19	SHENG Katherine	4%	21%	35%	28%	10%	1%
20	YURKOVA Mariia	-	-	1%	10%	41%	48%
21	JOO Natalie	-	-	4%	22%	46%	28%
22	LIN Yunong	7%	32%	42%	17%	2%	-
23	ZELDIN Nadia	16%	40%	33%	10%	1%	-
24	FENG Audrey	2%	17%	37%	31%	11%	1%	-
25	HARRIS Julia	-	2%	12%	33%	37%	15%	1%
26	YU Jane	9%	28%	35%	21%	6%	1%
27	FIELD Julianna	-	4%	17%	35%	33%	11%
28	CHEN Sophie	8%	37%	40%	14%	2%	-
29	POPOVA Polina	5%	29%	43%	20%	3%	-
30	LI Savannah	9%	35%	41%	13%	2%	-
31	ZHANG Zoey	50%	39%	10%	1%	-	-
32	CARON Josie	8%	37%	45%	9%	1%	-
33	REZA Fukaina	9%	34%	37%	16%	3%	-	-
34	WANG Selina	46%	42%	11%	-	-	-
35	LI Beryl	13%	42%	35%	9%	1%	-
36	BING Charlotte	11%	36%	37%	13%	2%	-
37	JIN Amie	18%	50%	29%	3%	-	-
38	MURPHY Charlotte	41%	43%	14%	2%	-	-
39	LAZAR Carolina	6%	32%	40%	19%	3%	-
40	LI Xiang (Shining)	55%	37%	8%	1%	-	-
41	MORGESON Olivia	23%	43%	27%	7%	1%	-
42	LI Yixin Catherine	42%	41%	15%	2%	-	-	-
43	DE DIOS Danica Arwen	7%	30%	39%	19%	4%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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