Turkey Day Slay at NKFA

Div II Mixed Épée

Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 11:00 AM

NKY Fencing Academy (NKFA) - Ludlow, KY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	MANAUGH Guy	-	12%	40%	38%	10%
2	BARTCH Ethan	1%	7%	28%	45%	20%
3	BETTS Jr Anthony P.	6%	26%	38%	24%	6%
3	AGUILAR Nicolas	-	5%	23%	41%	26%	5%
5	CHAN Matthew	-	-	2%	23%	76%
6	ADAMISIN Brayden	-	4%	18%	36%	31%	10%
7	RESS Michael	1%	13%	35%	37%	13%
8	BOTNER Olivia	-	5%	19%	36%	30%	9%
9	WRIGHT Dylan	-	1%	8%	31%	48%	13%
10	MILLER Zach	1%	9%	34%	41%	15%	2%
11	PIERCE Marcia	3%	19%	39%	31%	8%
12	SCHNUR Luke	-	1%	6%	26%	43%	24%
13	BETTRIDGE Jessica	6%	30%	44%	19%	-
13	LEWTON Grace	13%	38%	36%	12%	1%
15	CROSS Ryan	2%	12%	33%	38%	16%
16	KISH Daniel	1%	11%	36%	39%	13%
17	DEMANGONE Reed	8%	31%	39%	19%	3%
18	YORKE Aaron	6%	26%	39%	24%	5%
19	BYRNSIDE Caleb	1%	8%	28%	39%	21%	4%
21	KLYSHEVA Elina	13%	35%	34%	15%	3%	-
22	TLUCHOWSKI Sam	8%	33%	40%	17%	2%
23	DIDAY Griffen	8%	30%	38%	20%	4%
24	LINDENBERG Evan	15%	40%	33%	11%	1%
25	NELSON Meghan	23%	46%	25%	5%	-
26	NGUYEN Linh	12%	40%	38%	10%	-
27	KIM Hyojung	45%	40%	13%	2%	-	-
28	EICHLER Grace	3%	25%	42%	25%	5%	-
29	COOPER Audrey	12%	37%	36%	13%	2%
30	KING Alice	6%	27%	39%	23%	4%
31	CHARLTON Cecelia	16%	42%	33%	8%	-
32	FOREMAN Elizabeth	5%	28%	41%	22%	5%	-
33	NICOLL Allison	20%	44%	29%	6%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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