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Fall Frolic 2022

Div III Mixed Épée

Saturday, November 12, 2022 at 1:30 PM

Augusta Fencers Club - Augusta, GA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LIN Kason	-	-	1%	10%	39%	50%
2	GLENNON Sebastian	-	-	2%	11%	34%	43%	11%
3	RICKMAN Ian	-	-	-	-	5%	38%	57%
3	MAXWELL Austin	-	-	-	1%	15%	58%	26%
5	TIKHONOV Daniel	-	-	4%	24%	44%	25%	4%
6	LAW Seth	-	-	2%	10%	27%	38%	22%
7	BYBEE Lucy	-	2%	14%	38%	38%	8%
9	LE Kevin	1%	12%	34%	35%	15%	2%	-
10	JAAFAR Hamza	-	5%	23%	39%	26%	6%	-
11	KELLY Michael	-	-	-	2%	13%	40%	44%
12	YANAMANDRA Sidhansh	-	3%	16%	34%	33%	13%	2%
13	HAMBRICK Addison	3%	39%	40%	15%	2%	-
14	MCBRIDE Caleb	-	1%	8%	25%	37%	24%	5%
15	COMER John	5%	21%	36%	28%	9%	1%	-
16	NIEMAN Brent A.	-	-	3%	17%	39%	34%	8%
17	WILKENS Patricia	12%	35%	36%	15%	2%	-	-
18	FARINA Stephen	-	-	3%	14%	33%	36%	14%
19	HERRICK Kerry	2%	15%	36%	34%	12%	1%	-
20	ARZT Nicky	1%	9%	28%	36%	21%	5%	-
21	ALVARENGA Darby	23%	60%	16%	1%	-	-
22	COTTEN Justin	-	7%	33%	42%	17%	1%
23	MILLER Jonathan (Jack)	1%	10%	31%	36%	18%	4%	-
24	MURRAY Kerk	-	3%	15%	34%	33%	13%	2%
25	CAMPBELL Eva	17%	36%	31%	13%	3%	-	-
26	WOLF Savana	27%	42%	24%	6%	1%	-	-
27	PETERS Micah	13%	38%	34%	13%	2%	-	-
28	FRAIJ Laila	41%	41%	15%	2%	-	-	-
29	LEVERETT-HALL Corrina	15%	45%	32%	7%	1%	-	-
30	CARDINAL Jennifer	1%	8%	30%	41%	19%	1%	-
31	MINOR David	5%	26%	43%	22%	5%	-	-
32	VALDEZ Lorena	2%	28%	40%	23%	6%	1%	-
33	HOLMES Sullivan	4%	32%	44%	18%	2%	-
34	MOY Eva	16%	38%	32%	12%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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