American Challenge RYC/RJC

Y-14 Men's Épée

Saturday, November 19, 2022 at 4:00 PM

SportsPlex at Metuchen - Metuchen, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	XIE Brandon	-	-	1%	12%	45%	42%
2	ZAYDMAN Ethan	-	-	-	-	4%	27%	69%
3	MAO Benjamin	-	-	-	4%	19%	42%	34%
3	LAPP Oliver	-	-	5%	21%	42%	27%	5%
5	PALIWODA Nicholas	-	1%	4%	17%	33%	32%	12%
6	SOKOL Luke	-	-	3%	19%	50%	27%
7	LAI Boden	-	-	-	5%	25%	46%	24%
8	ORESKOVIC Olivier	8%	32%	39%	18%	3%	-	-
9	STAUDINGER Enzo	1%	8%	23%	33%	24%	9%	1%
10	SINGLETON Aman	-	5%	21%	36%	27%	9%	1%
11	KANG Brandon	1%	7%	23%	36%	25%	7%	-
12	LIU Adam	-	1%	9%	25%	36%	23%	5%
13	WONG Maximus	-	1%	6%	24%	40%	26%	3%
14	WANG justin	-	-	4%	16%	34%	33%	12%
15	PAN Anthony	1%	8%	25%	35%	23%	7%	1%
16	NAKAS Levent	-	-	-	3%	20%	46%	31%
17	SONG Troy	-	1%	5%	17%	33%	32%	12%
18	CZEPLA Andrew	1%	5%	18%	32%	29%	13%	2%
19	JIANG Matthew	-	2%	9%	24%	34%	24%	6%
20	MILINKOVIC Maksim	5%	21%	37%	28%	9%	1%	-
21	ZOGRAFOS Nicholas	7%	29%	40%	21%	3%	-
22	DOUBOV Andrew	-	2%	12%	30%	34%	18%	3%
23	KIM Henry	2%	14%	32%	32%	15%	3%	-
24	LIU Ethan	6%	26%	40%	24%	4%	-
25	ATKINS Levi H.	-	4%	20%	37%	29%	10%	1%
26	CHEN Jayden	2%	12%	29%	33%	18%	5%	-
27	GAO Victor	10%	35%	37%	15%	2%	-	-
28	LI Morgan	15%	36%	32%	14%	3%	-	-
29	DEGRUCCIO Johnny	4%	19%	34%	29%	12%	3%	-
30	GLUSHKOV David	28%	43%	24%	5%	-	-
31	LI Jade	7%	25%	35%	23%	8%	2%	-
32	NOOL Alexander	7%	29%	40%	20%	3%	-
33	HOLLIS Sean	1%	9%	24%	33%	24%	9%	1%
34	WUNDER Eli	1%	10%	26%	35%	22%	6%	-
35	KRAUSS Judah	15%	35%	32%	14%	3%	-	-
36	ROSIELLO Francesco	9%	31%	36%	19%	4%	-	-
37	BARATY Teagan	29%	44%	22%	5%	-	-	-
38	NOVOJILOV Daniel	1%	12%	34%	37%	13%	2%	-
39	JAYME Antonio	35%	42%	19%	4%	-	-	-
40	LI Ray	17%	39%	31%	11%	2%	-	-
41	ZHAO Pierce	19%	38%	29%	11%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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