American Challenge RYC/RJC

Y-12 Men's Épée

Sunday, November 20, 2022 at 12:00 PM

SportsPlex at Metuchen - Metuchen, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CHEN Jayden	-	2%	14%	36%	36%	12%
2	NAKAS Levent	-	-	-	7%	33%	49%	10%
3	LI Jade	2%	18%	38%	31%	11%	1%
3	LIU Adam	-	-	4%	16%	36%	36%	8%
5	LYCHKO Maksym	-	3%	17%	37%	33%	10%
6	KIM Henry	-	1%	6%	24%	42%	26%
7	LONG Kevin	1%	5%	19%	33%	29%	12%	2%
8	O'LONGAIGH Sunkhar	-	3%	18%	37%	32%	10%
9	MILINKOVIC Maksim	-	4%	17%	32%	30%	14%	2%
10	SONG Aidan	-	2%	16%	36%	34%	11%
11	DYCKMAN Benjamin	3%	20%	38%	29%	9%	1%
12	NOOL Alexander	4%	28%	40%	22%	5%	-
13	SOLARZ Arthur	1%	8%	23%	33%	25%	9%	1%
14	GIORDANO Zach	5%	20%	33%	27%	12%	3%	-
15	SINGLETON Aman	-	1%	10%	30%	40%	19%
16	TOPRANI Valmik	-	1%	8%	33%	41%	15%	2%
17	ANSARI Rayyan	-	-	-	2%	14%	40%	44%
18	YU David	6%	27%	38%	23%	6%	1%
19	CRESPO Nathaniel Justus	1%	9%	33%	40%	16%	1%
20	KINCADE Renny	-	2%	12%	32%	38%	15%
21	HELMY Richard	-	2%	14%	36%	34%	12%	1%
22	BHANDARE Veer	7%	32%	41%	17%	3%	-	-
23	FEIMER Ben	-	2%	11%	33%	39%	15%
24	LI Ryan	45%	41%	13%	2%	-	-	-
25	KHANNA Zoraver	29%	46%	21%	4%	-	-
25	YOON Jonathan	26%	42%	25%	7%	1%	-
27	NOOL Aaron	10%	40%	38%	11%	1%	-	-
28	LIU Jeremy	8%	26%	34%	23%	8%	1%	-
29	CHEN Edward	1%	10%	29%	36%	19%	4%	-
30	HALLISAY III Vincent	3%	19%	37%	30%	10%	1%
31	WELCH Sebastian	30%	47%	19%	3%	-	-
32	WANG Marcus	62%	31%	6%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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