American Challenge RYC/RJC

Y-14 Men's Foil

Sunday, November 20, 2022 at 4:00 PM

SportsPlex at Metuchen - Metuchen, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SRINIVASAN Vedant	-	4%	18%	37%	32%	9%
2	ZHAO Adam	-	-	1%	7%	25%	43%	25%
3	MARTIN Darius	-	-	-	3%	18%	48%	32%
3	SONG Noel	-	-	1%	8%	37%	54%
5	UNGERER Roger M.	-	-	1%	9%	29%	41%	19%
6	LEE Eugene	-	-	1%	8%	34%	44%	13%
7	AKYAMAC Bora	-	-	5%	21%	43%	31%
8	SHAPIRO Leon	-	-	1%	9%	29%	41%	19%
9	KAPOOR Aayan	-	2%	14%	34%	36%	14%
10	CHO Xzander	-	2%	12%	35%	41%	11%
11	SICAT Justin	7%	28%	37%	21%	5%	-
12	BAI Brian	2%	13%	32%	35%	16%	2%	-
13	GULCHIN Mark (Yerma)	-	-	-	3%	18%	47%	32%
14	WOODCOCK Henry	-	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	23%
15	BLACK Zachary	-	2%	13%	34%	37%	13%
16	WONG Jacob W.	-	3%	17%	36%	31%	11%	1%
17	JURMAN Therin	-	1%	10%	30%	39%	17%	2%
18	YANG Cooper	-	-	3%	16%	38%	33%	9%
19	SHANNON Jack	3%	20%	37%	28%	9%	1%	-
20	ZHAO Ryan	7%	29%	38%	21%	4%	-
21	ARCE Andrew W.	5%	26%	38%	24%	7%	1%
22	MOREA Anderson	2%	14%	35%	34%	14%	2%	-
23	DHANOA Kian	1%	9%	30%	36%	19%	5%	-
24	SION Andrew	-	4%	21%	36%	28%	9%	1%
25	HOLLIS Sean	4%	22%	37%	27%	8%	1%	-
26	BRAIZINHA Thomas	-	3%	14%	34%	36%	14%
27	O'LEARY Colin	3%	17%	37%	32%	10%	1%
28	BOURGUIGNAT James	7%	28%	38%	22%	5%	-
29	SUNDSTROM Wren	22%	41%	27%	8%	1%	-
30	TENG Darian	9%	30%	36%	20%	5%	1%	-
31	XU Nathan	-	4%	18%	37%	31%	9%	1%
32	WANG Luke	17%	39%	32%	11%	1%	-
33	CHEN kenneth	9%	32%	37%	18%	4%	-	-
34	REYES Yannik	2%	13%	32%	34%	16%	3%	-
35	MARTIN Mason	-	1%	4%	17%	33%	33%	12%
36	CHENG Austyn	1%	9%	27%	36%	21%	5%	1%
37	COSSROW Alex	6%	28%	38%	22%	5%	1%	-
38	HWANG Harris	2%	15%	33%	34%	14%	2%
39	MARTIRE Luca	36%	42%	18%	4%	-	-
40	LENNON Nicholas	14%	37%	34%	13%	2%	-
40	HAN Alexander	6%	28%	38%	22%	5%	-
42	KRZYWON Dylan	54%	37%	9%	1%	-	-	-
43	LIN Dexter	44%	40%	13%	2%	-	-	-
44	UNGERER Henry	9%	38%	36%	14%	2%	-	-
45	LIANG Haojia	27%	42%	24%	6%	1%	-	-
46	XU Lucas	34%	43%	19%	3%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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