AFM Youth Epee Cup - Event #2

Y-12 Men's Épée

Sunday, December 18, 2022 at 12:00 PM

AFM Sunnyvale - Sunnyvale, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	ROBINSON Samuel	-	-	2%	12%	31%	37%	17%
2	CLAES Thomas	19%	70%	12%
3	MANA Arnav	-	1%	7%	23%	36%	26%	7%
5	REICHMANN Theo	-	2%	14%	36%	38%	10%
6	BUROV Artem	-	-	1%	11%	40%	48%
7	TUBALTSEV Evan	4%	26%	49%	20%	2%
8	MA Ryan	5%	24%	40%	26%	5%	-
9	LOUIE Joseph	3%	22%	49%	26%
10	GORDON David	-	-	-	2%	14%	41%	42%
13	BUENAVENTURA Camden	18%	40%	32%	10%	1%
15	QUAN Leo	1%	9%	25%	34%	23%	7%	1%
16	KHUSHRAJ Rohan	10%	30%	35%	19%	5%	1%	-
17	WONG Vansen	3%	16%	33%	31%	14%	3%	-
18	KIM Ian	-	2%	10%	25%	35%	23%	6%
19	AKHMEDIANOV Timur	1%	10%	27%	33%	21%	7%	1%
20	KIL Isaac	1%	8%	24%	34%	24%	8%	1%
21	MANA Sameer	7%	30%	39%	21%	4%
22	BAUMAN Colin	9%	30%	36%	20%	5%	1%	-
24	BALUCAN Caelus	2%	20%	46%	32%
26	HUA Nolan	71%	27%	2%
27	WONG Kingston	5%	21%	35%	27%	10%	2%	-
28	BALUCAN Gabriel	-	3%	14%	31%	34%	15%	1%
29	SRIKANTH Hariharan	6%	27%	39%	23%	5%	-
30	CHIN NAKAZONO Justin	1%	15%	37%	33%	13%	2%
33	ESTOQUE Marc	2%	14%	35%	36%	13%
34	STREAM Logan	38%	43%	16%	2%	-	-
35	LIU Xuyao	62%	32%	5%	-
37	CHUNG Sawyer	3%	50%	39%	8%
38	WOON Joshua	1%	22%	40%	28%	8%	1%	-
39	LIU Daniel	16%	36%	31%	13%	3%	-	-
40	MCPHAIL Andrew	2%	14%	35%	36%	13%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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