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The Southern RYC/RJCC/ROC (D1A/DV2/VET) & Non-Regional Team

Junior Women's Saber

Sunday, December 18, 2022 at 8:00 AM

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Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	XIE Nora	7%	27%	36%	22%	7%	1%
2	DANTULURI Shalini	2%	11%	29%	35%	20%	4%
3	SCOTT Eve	-	4%	16%	34%	33%	12%
3	COLBY Mercer	-	2%	19%	39%	31%	8%
5	FAVO Isabella	-	1%	8%	29%	42%	21%
6	BROWN Olivia	-	3%	16%	34%	34%	13%
7	HAMMERSTROM Aria	-	3%	21%	40%	29%	7%
8	WANG Caroline	12%	32%	34%	17%	4%	-
9	DONDERIS Katherine	-	2%	19%	39%	31%	8%
10	BERNARD Kathryn	1%	14%	44%	33%	7%
11	FERNANDEZ Martina	-	2%	18%	47%	33%
12	CARTER Keely	8%	27%	36%	22%	6%	1%
13	TAN Kylie	1%	11%	29%	35%	20%	4%
14	KRIVOSHEEV Alexandra	1%	6%	21%	36%	29%	9%
15	TODD Phoebe	-	4%	24%	47%	25%
16	PAL Anjali G.	-	3%	14%	33%	35%	14%
17	DANTULURI Shivani	25%	52%	21%	3%	-
18	GERASIMOVA Valeria	13%	54%	27%	5%	-	-
19	WUNNAVA Ellora	25%	41%	25%	7%	1%	-
20	TRUBEY Elise	2%	12%	30%	34%	18%	4%
21	HUANG Neila	8%	29%	36%	21%	6%	1%
22	ELLIS-FURLONG Ava	47%	43%	10%	1%	-
23	ZENG Gina	70%	27%	2%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.