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Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	MITBERG Gregory W.	-	-	-	-	1%	14%	86%
2	HAYES Nadia	-	1%	9%	29%	38%	19%	3%
3	GELLER Adam T.	-	1%	6%	23%	40%	27%	2%
3	SHAGIDANYAN German	-	1%	10%	30%	37%	19%	3%
5	MCINTOSH Caleb	-	-	-	4%	19%	42%	34%
6	ZOBEL Eric H.	-	-	2%	17%	46%	36%
7	KIM Andrew J.	-	5%	19%	35%	30%	10%
8	BERK Theo	-	-	3%	16%	37%	34%	9%
9	SHAJI Karthik	-	-	1%	10%	31%	43%	15%
10	SEIDL Cassidy M.	1%	8%	27%	35%	22%	6%	1%
11	STACKHOUSE Andre L.	2%	11%	28%	35%	20%	4%
12	KRYLTSOV Michael	-	7%	39%	40%	13%	1%
13	LEE Christopher T.	-	1%	10%	32%	41%	15%	1%
14	WEI Qiancheng	-	4%	29%	45%	20%	3%
15	GUTIERREZ Nikolai A.	-	-	4%	23%	48%	25%
16	VALENTINE Iain	-	5%	23%	40%	26%	6%	-
17	GRANHOLM Carolyn	-	-	3%	15%	37%	37%	7%
18	TANG Julian	-	-	1%	9%	28%	40%	22%
19	STACKHOUSE Nina L.	1%	7%	25%	35%	24%	8%	1%
20	DONG Quintin	15%	35%	32%	14%	3%	-
21	YAN Noelle	1%	8%	25%	36%	23%	6%	-
22	LIPPMAN Sam	-	-	6%	28%	40%	22%	4%
23	LEE Jayden	8%	36%	37%	16%	3%	-	-
24	ROZALSKI Eli	11%	35%	36%	15%	3%	-	-
25	LIU Aaron Zixian	3%	20%	40%	28%	8%	1%	-
26	KLEIN Johannes	2%	12%	31%	35%	17%	3%	-
27	LEE Tobias (Toby) T.	1%	5%	20%	35%	29%	9%
28	TROXEL Sylvie A.	3%	17%	33%	30%	13%	2%
29	GELLER Daniel	2%	14%	35%	34%	13%	2%	-
30	COSGROVE Jameson	2%	36%	42%	16%	3%	-	-
31	BEAVER Hannah	9%	29%	35%	21%	6%	1%	-
32	NISTER Jonathan	9%	31%	37%	18%	4%	-	-
33	SPROWLES Cameron D.	-	-	2%	17%	44%	34%	3%
34	FECAROTTA Ryan	71%	27%	2%	-	-	-
35	CHRISTIAN Jonathan	1%	15%	37%	34%	12%	2%	-
36	HARROCH Faustin	51%	38%	10%	1%	-	-	-
37	POWERS Doug A.	7%	27%	36%	22%	7%	1%
38	ROSSMAN Brock	17%	61%	20%	2%	-	-
39	VALENTINE Eoin	48%	40%	11%	1%	-	-	-
40	SCHULTZ Nomi	76%	23%	2%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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