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Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	TSAI Max W.	-	-	-	3%	17%	43%	36%
2	MCLEAN Miles K.	-	-	-	1%	6%	33%	60%
3	MILLER Aidan A.	-	-	1%	5%	20%	41%	33%
3	LI Ayren	-	-	4%	17%	38%	34%	6%
5	LIU Derek	-	-	-	2%	15%	45%	38%
6	ZHENG Harrison	-	1%	7%	25%	38%	24%	5%
7	CHESSA Giovanni	-	3%	13%	29%	34%	18%	3%
8	MENG Zhaoyi	-	-	1%	10%	33%	41%	14%
9	WOODTHORPE Michael G.	-	-	1%	5%	22%	42%	30%
10	WANG Mason	-	-	-	5%	23%	47%	25%
11	CHENG Ethan	-	1%	6%	23%	40%	26%	5%
12	MCQUIDE Elliot	3%	18%	36%	31%	11%	1%	-
13	GE Daniel	1%	17%	38%	30%	11%	2%	-
14	WANG Rory	-	3%	14%	32%	35%	14%	1%
15	GARDINER Luke J.	4%	20%	36%	29%	10%	1%	-
16	WU Michael	-	3%	13%	30%	34%	17%	3%
17	DENG Kenny	-	3%	16%	35%	32%	13%	2%
18	ZHUANG Chuanxuan	-	4%	18%	37%	32%	9%	1%
19	JIN Dennis H.	1%	6%	20%	34%	28%	10%	1%
20	YANG Dylan	10%	31%	36%	19%	5%	-	-
21	HOLCOMB Cedric	3%	18%	36%	30%	10%	1%	-
22	BOUSSY Luciano	-	-	5%	21%	38%	28%	7%
23	ABANILLA Luke	5%	21%	36%	27%	9%	1%	-
24	RIPA Joseph K.	6%	23%	36%	26%	8%	1%	-
25	BILODEAU Leo	11%	36%	36%	15%	3%	-	-
26	ROWAN Danny	22%	41%	28%	8%	1%	-	-
27	WILSON Samuel S.	2%	14%	31%	32%	16%	4%	-
28	HAZLETT Grady	6%	33%	39%	18%	4%	-	-
29	FENG Michael	21%	40%	28%	9%	2%	-	-
30	SURESH Rohan	4%	21%	38%	27%	8%	1%	-
31	CANEDO James	20%	40%	29%	10%	1%	-	-
32	ABRUZZESE Owen	11%	32%	35%	18%	4%	-	-
33	LAO Kevin	11%	33%	34%	17%	4%	-	-
34	SANCHEZ-HERNANDEZ Alex	63%	31%	5%	-	-	-	-
35	IREZ Connor	5%	36%	41%	16%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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