The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

Take Action

The Austin Challenge SYC and RCC

Cadet Men's Foil

Monday, December 19, 2022 at 9:00 AM

The Round Rock Sports Center - Round Rock, TX, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	DESHMUKH Arjun	-	-	-	1%	10%	40%	49%
2	DORAN Wesley C.	-	-	-	-	4%	30%	65%
3	WU Alber Y.	-	-	2%	14%	38%	39%	7%
3	NICOLETTI Luca	-	-	-	3%	19%	44%	33%
5	ZHANG Aaron	-	-	1%	8%	36%	55%
6	LU Kevin	-	6%	21%	35%	27%	9%	1%
6	KETTELLE John	-	3%	12%	27%	33%	20%	5%
8	LI Samuel	-	-	2%	12%	35%	39%	13%
9	CAPRA Ethan	-	-	3%	17%	39%	32%	8%
10	ZHANG Jacob	4%	22%	37%	27%	9%	1%	-
11	RAUTUREAU Hugo	-	3%	12%	28%	33%	19%	4%
12	MEJIA MATTHEW D.	-	-	-	4%	19%	42%	35%
13	PARK Rion	-	3%	16%	35%	34%	11%	1%
14	SANCHEZ Emanuel	1%	9%	28%	35%	21%	5%	-
15	LEE Derek	4%	22%	38%	26%	8%	1%	-
16	KIM Adrian	-	4%	20%	39%	31%	6%
17	AGRAWAL Niki	1%	9%	28%	37%	21%	4%	-
18	CHAN Joseph	2%	15%	35%	34%	13%	1%
19	LIU William	1%	12%	34%	36%	15%	2%	-
20	NGUYEN martin	-	-	1%	9%	32%	44%	14%
21	BARRETT Austin	2%	14%	30%	31%	17%	5%	1%
22	TSOI Spencer	2%	16%	37%	33%	11%	1%	-
23	GRIFFITH MCALLISTER Thomas	1%	10%	28%	35%	20%	5%	-
24	CHEN Kelton	4%	24%	39%	25%	7%	-
25	KIM Aiden	-	1%	5%	17%	33%	32%	13%
26	TAN Peter	-	1%	9%	29%	41%	18%	2%
27	GOODLIN Sean	19%	41%	30%	9%	1%	-	-
28	CHEN Leetyan	3%	21%	39%	28%	8%	1%
29	TSAY Jordan R.	4%	18%	33%	29%	13%	3%	-
30	JOHNSON Chance	4%	20%	37%	29%	9%	1%	-
31	ZHENG zhe	< 1%	-	4%	17%	36%	34%	9%
32	SEIGEL Duncan	21%	41%	29%	9%	1%	-	-
33	CHIN Ryan	2%	10%	26%	33%	21%	7%	1%
34	ZHANG Graham	5%	24%	39%	25%	6%	1%	-
35	BAE Eugene	19%	37%	29%	12%	3%	-	-
36	PETROV Mikhail	45%	40%	13%	2%	-	-
37	YANG Ethan J.	6%	25%	39%	24%	6%	1%	-
38	HE Bourne	50%	38%	11%	2%	-	-	-
38	MCKEE Calvin	49%	38%	11%	1%	-	-	-
40	MAVANI Krishna	7%	34%	38%	17%	3%	-	-
41	CHANG Nathan	31%	43%	21%	4%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.