The Austin Challenge SYC and RCC

Y-14 Women's Foil

Monday, December 19, 2022 at 1:00 PM

The Round Rock Sports Center - Round Rock, TX, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CHEN Renee	-	-	-	-	4%	28%	68%
2	DAI Zizhuo (Zizi)	-	-	3%	13%	32%	36%	16%
3	HO Addison	-	-	3%	19%	43%	34%
3	PAULUS Sloane E.	-	1%	6%	23%	43%	27%
5	LAI Sophia	-	-	1%	11%	33%	40%	16%
6	BEAVER Ava	-	-	6%	25%	43%	25%
7	WYNN Kylie	-	4%	23%	41%	26%	5%
8	SWANSON Alexa	-	1%	8%	25%	36%	23%	5%
9	DAVIS Logan	-	-	4%	20%	43%	33%
10	HUANG Yuwen	-	1%	9%	25%	35%	24%	6%
11	CHERNYKH Elina	4%	19%	35%	29%	11%	1%
12	NAIR Supriya	-	2%	10%	31%	40%	17%
12	PENG Charlotte	1%	8%	27%	39%	22%	4%
14	JOHNSON Shelby	-	3%	20%	39%	30%	8%
15	PENG Serena	-	-	3%	16%	40%	40%
16	REN Kayley	-	-	2%	13%	34%	37%	13%
17	BAE Yooju	-	4%	21%	40%	27%	7%	-
18	YUEN Elsie	7%	26%	36%	23%	7%	1%	-
19	WANG Joanna	-	6%	25%	39%	23%	6%	1%
20	KIM Erin	-	-	3%	16%	35%	34%	12%
21	CUI alivia	5%	23%	38%	26%	8%	1%
22	LUO Miranda	-	4%	24%	41%	25%	5%
23	DUAN Sophie	-	2%	17%	38%	33%	9%
24	GAO Anne	-	1%	9%	29%	39%	20%	2%
25	LEVESQUE Brielle	3%	15%	33%	33%	15%	2%
26	AADHI Hansika	8%	28%	36%	22%	6%	1%
27	COX Sophia	9%	31%	38%	18%	4%	-
28	ZOU Ella	-	2%	12%	29%	34%	19%	4%
29	COLLINS Anna	-	3%	20%	40%	30%	7%
30	DENG Melissa	-	2%	11%	33%	40%	14%
31	CAMPBELL June	8%	30%	37%	20%	4%	-
32	ALKADI Mai	2%	16%	35%	33%	12%	2%
33	HAN Gian	-	1%	11%	31%	38%	18%	2%
34	WU Chingfei Amber	4%	31%	40%	20%	4%	-	-
35	LICHTENSTEIGER Megan	-	5%	25%	40%	25%	5%
36	GUO Audrey	17%	40%	31%	10%	1%	-
37	ZHANG Ivy	2%	14%	32%	34%	16%	2%
38	CHANG Janelle	29%	50%	18%	3%	-	-
39	STONE Sydney	1%	14%	37%	33%	13%	2%	-
40	DESAI Esha	17%	39%	32%	11%	1%	-
41	ZHANG Gwenyth	13%	34%	34%	16%	3%	-
42	POEI Lauren	26%	42%	24%	6%	1%	-
43	LI Jasmine	36%	48%	14%	2%	-	-
44	EDGEWORTH Paloma	1%	12%	33%	34%	16%	3%	-
45	VANMOORSEL Faye	6%	35%	39%	16%	3%	-	-
46	MIRZA Sophia	18%	38%	30%	11%	2%	-	-
47	FUNG Sarafina	35%	49%	15%	2%	-	-
48	ZHANG Zoey	43%	45%	11%	1%	-	-
49	HUGHES Olivia	64%	30%	5%	-	-	-	-
49	YANG Luna	12%	35%	34%	15%	3%	-	-
51	WU Emma	70%	27%	3%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.