January NAC

Veteran Women's Foil

Monday, January 9, 2023 at 8:00 AM

Louisville, KY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SEAL Julie T.	-	-	-	3%	15%	40%	43%
2	STARKS-FAULKNER Jennette	-	-	-	1%	20%	48%	30%
3	WALTERS Anne-Marie	-	-	2%	14%	42%	42%
3	SETHRE Traci	17%	38%	31%	12%	2%	-
5	MADDOX Lacey E.	1%	11%	29%	36%	19%	4%
6	MERRITT Elizabeth (Badger) E.	-	-	-	2%	25%	48%	25%
7	CHAPMAN Lesley F.	-	1%	6%	23%	42%	29%
8	LOVE Georgina	-	-	-	6%	38%	43%	13%
9	MAO Rebecca J.	1%	10%	28%	36%	21%	4%
10	PIERRYNOWSKI Kathryn S.	1%	11%	31%	36%	18%	3%
11	OFFERLE Judith (Jude) A.	-	1%	11%	35%	41%	13%
12	HENNIG-TRESTMAN Bonnie L.	-	1%	5%	22%	42%	30%
13	THURMAN Allison L.	2%	13%	30%	33%	18%	4%	-
14	KERR Margaret E.	-	6%	29%	41%	20%	3%
15	WU Velyn	-	14%	48%	34%	4%	-	-
16	MCGRATH Polina S.	-	4%	18%	33%	31%	12%	2%
17	SZPAK Ursula (Uschi)	-	2%	13%	30%	34%	17%	3%
18	FAGAN Margaret	-	1%	5%	21%	42%	32%
19	BASSIK Judith M.	5%	22%	36%	27%	9%	1%
20	DE LA FOSCADE-CONDON Celine	-	6%	24%	38%	26%	6%
21	ECKSTEIN Harriet A.	5%	51%	36%	7%	-	-	-
22	ROMANO Megan C.	54%	36%	8%	1%	-	-
23	WHITT Lynnette A.	1%	9%	27%	36%	22%	5%
24	TRELOAR Allison F.	1%	8%	25%	37%	24%	5%
25	CHOY Ida	7%	27%	36%	23%	7%	1%
26	WOUNDY Melissa A.	9%	31%	35%	18%	5%	1%	-
27	FERGUSON Diane F.	6%	25%	37%	24%	7%	1%
28	HAZEL Susan L.	26%	49%	22%	4%	-	-
29	BRUNELLI Alessandra	27%	41%	24%	6%	1%	-	-
30	ROSENFELD Madelon M.	-	5%	18%	34%	30%	12%	1%
31	HERMES Kathleen A.	6%	30%	38%	20%	5%	-
32	LEE Claire L.	12%	33%	35%	16%	3%	-
33	STEVENS Joanne B.	1%	9%	35%	38%	15%	2%
34	HUEY Sharone A.	-	6%	25%	39%	24%	5%
34	TASKER Monisha B.	15%	37%	32%	13%	2%	-
36	FREY Alison	42%	45%	12%	1%	-	-
37	CAWTHORN Muriel C.	-	10%	41%	41%	7%	-	-
38	MORO Diana	85%	15%	1%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.