Treasure Chest RYC

Y-12 Women's Épée

Sunday, January 15, 2023 at 2:00 PM

Treasure Island YMCA - San Francisco, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	XU Serena	-	1%	12%	41%	45%
2	HANKINS Morgan	-	-	-	4%	27%	68%
3	SIMHADRI Sanjana	10%	33%	37%	17%	3%	-
3	LIN Isabel	1%	6%	23%	40%	28%	4%
5	FISCHBEIN Quinley	-	2%	11%	31%	38%	17%
6	MADANNAVAR Trisha	13%	36%	35%	14%	2%	-
7	CHEN Julia Z.	2%	13%	31%	34%	17%	3%
8	YU Chloe	8%	28%	36%	22%	6%	-
9	RADOV Una	3%	18%	34%	30%	12%	2%
10	BUDMAN Ava	-	-	4%	19%	42%	34%
11	LI Yunxuan	-	4%	17%	35%	33%	11%
12	CHIOU-WILLIAMS Matea	1%	7%	22%	35%	27%	8%
13	MIYOSHI Kylie	3%	20%	37%	29%	10%	1%
14	ZHAO Emma	1%	11%	38%	39%	11%
15	GIERAT-KATZ Izabella	21%	39%	29%	10%	2%	-
16	ZHAO Ellie	7%	28%	37%	21%	6%	1%
17	ZHU Riley	1%	10%	28%	36%	21%	4%
18	DWIGGINS Reese	-	3%	16%	35%	34%	12%
19	CHO Seren	1%	5%	20%	36%	29%	9%
20	CHO Dana	5%	22%	37%	27%	8%	1%
21	WANG Nicole	-	2%	13%	33%	37%	15%
22	DENEALE Lucia	1%	9%	27%	36%	21%	5%
23	CAYETANO Audrey	2%	12%	29%	34%	19%	4%
24	CHANG Allison	2%	17%	42%	32%	7%
25	KANDALA Aanya	2%	14%	31%	33%	16%	3%
26	BUCA Nora	1%	8%	25%	36%	24%	6%
27	YU Xintong	3%	19%	37%	30%	10%	1%
28	LI Chelsea	32%	47%	18%	3%	-
29	ARULKUMAR Lashia	26%	46%	23%	4%	-
30	KLEINER Sophia	14%	38%	33%	13%	2%	-
31	DING Calista	1%	11%	32%	38%	16%	1%
31	LE Luana	18%	37%	30%	12%	2%	-
33	LEE Grace	15%	36%	32%	14%	3%	-
34	REN Ivanka	14%	36%	34%	13%	2%	-
35	YU Gloria	31%	42%	21%	5%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.