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2023 UGA Open

Div III Mixed Foil

Saturday, January 21, 2023 at 8:15 AM

Hugh Mills Physical Education Complex - Gainesville, GA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
2	DING Tommy	-	1%	9%	31%	40%	18%
3	AWAN Saqlain A.	1%	11%	30%	36%	19%	3%
3	CAMPBELL Justin	-	-	2%	15%	53%	31%
5	MAXWELL CJ F.	-	-	-	2%	17%	44%	36%
6	VIVEROS Oscar A.	-	3%	19%	39%	31%	7%
7	FAN Yuchen	2%	13%	32%	35%	16%	2%
8	VALES Keyan	4%	20%	37%	30%	9%	1%
9	HUTTO Joshua	-	-	3%	19%	45%	33%
10	VINEL ALEKSANDR	-	7%	34%	43%	15%	1%
11	LIU Elinda	2%	15%	38%	35%	9%	1%	-
12	MILES Greyson	1%	10%	28%	35%	20%	5%	-
13	MANN Justin	-	6%	28%	41%	22%	3%
14	CANTRELL Jason T.	-	4%	18%	35%	30%	12%	2%
15	NELSEN Harrison	-	1%	13%	35%	37%	14%
16	SINGLE Thomas	1%	12%	31%	35%	18%	3%
17	MACK Jacob	13%	38%	35%	13%	2%	-
18	TAN Isabella	4%	20%	35%	28%	10%	1%
19	HAYWOOD Madison	3%	17%	34%	31%	13%	2%
20	BRUCE Naomi	10%	33%	37%	17%	3%	-
21	HONG Robin	-	3%	13%	31%	37%	16%
22	FROST Talon	-	4%	21%	39%	29%	7%
23	RODRIGUEZ Beni A.	-	11%	34%	37%	16%	2%
24	EGOAVIL Isabella	11%	33%	36%	17%	3%	-
25	BOTKIN Elizabeth	8%	32%	41%	18%	2%	-
26	PALEO Gabriella	-	2%	18%	47%	27%	5%	-
27	YAU Katie	14%	39%	34%	12%	2%	-	-
28	POON Heidi	6%	30%	41%	19%	3%	-
29	XIE Michael	1%	8%	25%	36%	24%	6%
30	MANN Luke	2%	15%	34%	33%	14%	2%
31	MONAGHAN Claire (Micah)	7%	26%	35%	23%	7%	1%
32	MCARTHUR Kemp	15%	37%	33%	13%	2%	-
33	MALIK Manha	-	5%	34%	42%	17%	2%
34	BLACK Elias	29%	43%	23%	5%	-	-
35	COUSINS Patrick	15%	41%	32%	10%	1%	-
36	ZHANG Justin	32%	64%	4%	-	-	-
37	KUTATELADZE Anna	1%	11%	30%	36%	19%	3%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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