6th Annual Sword in the Stone RYC and RJC

Y-14 Women's Foil

Sunday, January 22, 2023 at 8:00 AM

Jump Beyond Sports - Torrance, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SAIFEE Lamya	-	-	-	4%	22%	45%	28%
2	CASTANEDA Keira	-	-	-	1%	13%	51%	35%
3	CHEN Chloe I.	-	-	-	1%	8%	36%	55%
3	LENK Sophie	-	2%	17%	41%	32%	7%
5	KO Claire	-	-	3%	17%	41%	33%	6%
6	ZHANG Ivy	-	2%	11%	28%	36%	20%	3%
7	SUN Chloe	-	-	-	1%	9%	47%	43%
8	CHANG Elizabeth	-	-	-	3%	16%	41%	39%
9	WYNN Kylie	-	-	7%	31%	44%	18%
10	YONG Rosalind	-	1%	10%	31%	38%	17%	2%
11	DENG Melissa	-	-	3%	17%	43%	36%
12	HSU Kaylin	-	-	2%	17%	44%	37%
13	MIYASHIRO Katelyn	-	1%	11%	35%	42%	10%	1%
14	CARVAJAL Sofia	-	-	-	5%	25%	45%	24%
15	DUAN Sophie	-	-	3%	20%	45%	31%
16	ZOU Ella	-	1%	11%	35%	39%	13%
17	PENG Charlotte	-	1%	10%	32%	42%	15%
18	TIKHONOVA Vasilisa	-	4%	21%	42%	28%	6%
19	BARTON Nanea	1%	13%	35%	35%	13%	2%
20	SHUM Maya	-	-	3%	16%	40%	34%	7%
21	TIKHONOVA Sofia	2%	18%	44%	29%	7%	1%
22	MORALES Paulina	-	3%	16%	33%	32%	14%	2%
23	GUO Audrey	1%	10%	32%	40%	16%	1%	-
24	COX Sophia	-	4%	20%	39%	28%	8%	1%
25	GOEL Riyana	6%	28%	37%	21%	6%	1%	-
26	ANDONIAN Lauren	1%	14%	41%	33%	10%	1%
27	WILLIAMSON Tessa	2%	16%	36%	33%	12%	1%
28	DESAI Esha	2%	15%	34%	32%	14%	3%	-
29	LEVESQUE Brielle	-	3%	15%	32%	33%	15%	2%
30	LIU Ariana	3%	21%	41%	27%	7%	1%	-
31	LI Joy	9%	33%	38%	17%	3%	-	-
32	PEDERSEN Haley	9%	35%	37%	16%	3%	-
33	KIM Sydney	2%	16%	36%	33%	11%	1%	-
34	MANIMTIM Rachel	34%	44%	19%	3%	-	-	-
35	POEI Lauren	7%	28%	39%	22%	5%	-	-
36	WU Chingfei Amber	14%	47%	31%	8%	1%	-
37	VILLARAMA Kara	15%	47%	30%	7%	1%	-
38	CHANG Olivia	5%	26%	42%	23%	4%	-	-
39	CHANG Janelle	8%	38%	38%	14%	2%	-	-
40	LUCAS Ava	47%	40%	12%	1%	-	-
41	HUGHES Olivia	57%	36%	6%	-	-	-
42	MILES Quinn	56%	35%	8%	1%	-	-	-
43	CHOI Sophie	28%	43%	23%	5%	-	-	-
44	CHEN Elysia	61%	35%	4%	-	-	-
45	BENNYHOFF Naia	14%	41%	34%	10%	1%	-	-
46	CHU Felicity	43%	40%	14%	2%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.