Boston Fencing Club RYC

Y-14 Men's Saber

Sunday, December 15, 2019 at 11:00 AM

Boston, MA - Boston, MA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SKINNER Graham B.	-	-	-	2%	12%	38%	47%
2	DOLAN Charles R.	-	-	3%	15%	33%	35%	14%
3	KIM Shaun M.	-	-	-	2%	13%	39%	45%
3	SAVOY Luca	-	-	3%	18%	45%	35%
5	GOLDMAN Noah R.	1%	9%	26%	35%	22%	6%	-
6	PENG Bryan	-	-	1%	8%	37%	55%
7	SHTEIN Yan	1%	9%	25%	34%	23%	7%	1%
8	BRIDGES Benjamin	-	3%	14%	30%	32%	17%	4%
9	ZHUANG Rayken	-	2%	14%	40%	37%	7%
10	MCCARTHY Gabriel	-	-	4%	18%	37%	33%	9%
11	BAE Jason I.	-	-	-	3%	18%	42%	37%
12	PIWOWAR Alex	-	1%	6%	26%	45%	22%
13	MORALES Jonathan	-	1%	7%	23%	35%	26%	7%
14	HUANG Tom	1%	7%	23%	35%	25%	8%	1%
15	PERRON Robert	5%	23%	36%	25%	9%	1%	-
16	KASPER Aaron	-	2%	11%	29%	35%	19%	3%
17	HUANG Connor	-	4%	16%	32%	32%	14%	2%
18	ZHANG Yankun	-	2%	16%	42%	33%	6%
19	HUROWITZ Max	3%	17%	35%	31%	13%	2%	-
20	SHIPITSIN Yaroslav	8%	31%	37%	19%	5%	1%	-
21	MAGNI Jesse	10%	30%	35%	19%	5%	1%	-
22	GONG Jerry	-	7%	29%	42%	18%	2%
23	TAUER Sam	10%	34%	37%	16%	3%	-
24	BAUMEL David	6%	30%	41%	19%	3%	-
25	CHTERENTAL Alex	-	2%	12%	29%	35%	18%	3%
26	WEN Edward	12%	32%	33%	18%	5%	1%	-
27	CIRURGIAO Calvin	14%	35%	32%	15%	3%	-	-
28	SHIPITSIN Alexander	-	1%	10%	29%	37%	19%	3%
29	RINDISBACHER Peter	24%	44%	26%	6%	-	-
30	YANG Michael	1%	9%	25%	34%	23%	7%	1%
31	SINGH RANGER Vir	1%	11%	31%	35%	17%	4%	-
32	LI Alexander	13%	43%	33%	10%	2%	-	-
33	SINGER Colin	1%	13%	32%	34%	16%	4%	-
34	BROOK Joel	45%	40%	13%	2%	-	-	-
35	MUNGOVAN Matthew	8%	33%	42%	15%	2%	-
36	OSSMANN Archer	24%	47%	24%	4%	-	-
37	BAUMEL Zachary	4%	22%	37%	27%	9%	1%	-
38	STOLPER Max	2%	10%	25%	32%	22%	8%	1%
39	LAM Jeffrey Y.	11%	32%	35%	18%	4%	-	-
40	RUSSELL Clark	41%	44%	13%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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