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2023 Battle in Seattle

Div I-A Men's Foil

Sunday, January 29, 2023 at 12:00 PM

Rain City Fencing Center - Bellevue, WA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LUH Ethan K.	-	-	-	5%	26%	46%	23%
2	MITBERG Gregory W.	-	-	-	-	1%	13%	87%
3	TSAY Jeremy M.	-	-	3%	13%	32%	37%	16%
3	PORRAS Cristian	-	-	5%	23%	44%	28%
5	MIN Eric	-	-	2%	12%	33%	39%	15%
6	GUTIERREZ Nikolai A.	-	-	-	3%	21%	45%	31%
7	MA Andrew	-	1%	6%	20%	36%	29%	8%
8	CHUNG Yeongbin	-	-	7%	31%	43%	19%	1%
9	GUERRA Gabriel H.	-	-	3%	15%	34%	35%	14%
10	KIM Andrew J.	-	-	2%	10%	28%	39%	21%
11	KRYLTSOV Michael	-	-	3%	23%	44%	27%	2%
12	KIM Jackson	-	4%	16%	32%	31%	14%	2%
13	SHAGIDANYAN German	-	6%	25%	40%	24%	5%
14	LI Samuel	2%	13%	30%	32%	17%	4%	-
15	LISONDRA Niko	-	1%	8%	34%	41%	16%	1%
16	STACKHOUSE Andre L.	-	-	4%	27%	44%	22%	3%
17	CHENG Nathan	-	-	2%	10%	29%	39%	20%
18	BERK Theodore	-	-	4%	18%	37%	32%	9%
19	LEE Christopher T.	-	-	5%	34%	42%	17%	2%
20	SKYWARK Andrew	6%	33%	40%	18%	3%	-
21	LIPPMAN Sam	-	4%	17%	33%	30%	13%	2%
22	ROSSMAN Brock	13%	35%	34%	15%	3%	-	-
23	KUZMAK Michael J.	-	5%	21%	34%	27%	10%	1%
24	MA Bryant	1%	7%	27%	39%	21%	5%	-
25	KIM Harrison	3%	20%	36%	28%	11%	2%	-
26	LIM Jonathon	2%	28%	54%	14%	1%	-	-
27	STRUGAR Marcus A.	-	1%	9%	31%	42%	18%
28	TALASILA Arush	2%	20%	48%	25%	5%	-	-
29	PALACIOS Francisco	1%	11%	29%	34%	19%	5%	1%
30	CHRISTIAN Jonathan	8%	27%	35%	22%	7%	1%	-
31	WU Alistair	3%	23%	41%	26%	6%	1%
32	CRAIG Whitman	18%	37%	30%	12%	2%	-	-
33	HARROCH Faustin	12%	56%	29%	3%	-	-	-
34	LEE Jayden	8%	32%	38%	18%	3%	-	-
35	HOLCOMB Alexander	72%	25%	3%	-	-	-	-
36	MEMMOTT Ben	56%	35%	8%	1%	-	-	-
37	KLEIN Johannes	3%	17%	33%	30%	13%	3%	-
38	FECAROTTA Ryan	55%	36%	8%	1%	-	-
39	HOLCOMB Michael	71%	26%	2%	-	-	-	-
40	SHOWALTER Cameron J.	9%	55%	30%	5%	-	-	-
40	HOLLEY Dakota	13%	36%	34%	14%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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