Duel of the East Coast ROC/RJCC

Div I-A Women's Saber

Saturday, January 28, 2023 at 8:00 AM

Greater Philadelphia Expo Center - Oaks, PA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	NATH Trisha	-	-	1%	10%	36%	53%
2	LIU Yifei	-	3%	16%	35%	34%	12%
3	LEE Sophia	-	2%	12%	32%	38%	16%
3	BAWA Anahat	2%	15%	33%	34%	14%	2%
5	SCOTT Eve	-	3%	16%	34%	34%	12%
6	OBRADOVIC Ana	-	5%	22%	37%	28%	8%
7	SPEARS Mya B	1%	8%	28%	37%	22%	5%
8	D'ORAZIO Sofia V.	1%	14%	34%	34%	15%	2%
9	MACE Eliza M.	-	1%	5%	21%	42%	32%
10	KRASOWITZ Lucy	15%	36%	33%	14%	3%	-
11	COLBY Mercer	6%	24%	37%	25%	7%	1%
12	FAN Grace	-	5%	22%	37%	28%	8%
13	HAMBAZAZA Liisa	1%	6%	23%	37%	27%	6%
14	NAYAK Esha	2%	13%	32%	35%	17%	2%
15	FEIG Sela	-	3%	17%	36%	33%	11%
16	BERNSTEIN Aiden S.	2%	15%	34%	33%	14%	2%
17	CHARLES Caitlin	6%	25%	37%	24%	7%	1%
18	NGUYEN Ella	-	4%	20%	37%	30%	9%
19	FLATT Sophia	3%	18%	36%	30%	11%	1%
20	CHAVAN Arya	4%	21%	37%	28%	9%	1%
21	REN Xinling	-	5%	19%	36%	30%	9%
22	MCGRAW Sadie	37%	41%	17%	3%	-	-
23	SCHAIBLE Sofia L.	3%	19%	36%	29%	10%	1%
24	NAYAK Anika	6%	31%	38%	20%	5%	-
25	BIRNSTILL Reese	13%	35%	34%	15%	3%	-
26	NAYAK Antara	73%	24%	3%	-	-	-
27	BARROSO Isabela	60%	33%	6%	1%	-	-
28	MESSICK Maya	21%	40%	29%	10%	1%	-
29	MYAT Chloe	2%	19%	38%	30%	10%	1%
29	ZENG Sarah	< 1%	4%	17%	35%	33%	11%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.