2023 Winter Thrust RYC/RJCC

Junior Women's Saber

Sunday, February 5, 2023 at 10:30 AM

ROCKLAND COMMUNITY COLLEGE - Suffern, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	MUND Ruth	-	2%	14%	35%	36%	13%
2	BULBA Daria	-	-	1%	6%	32%	62%
3	PAUL Lila	-	-	-	-	6%	32%	62%
3	LIU Yifei	-	5%	21%	39%	30%	4%
5	SCOTT Eve	-	1%	8%	28%	39%	22%	3%
6	FESTA Carina	-	-	4%	17%	35%	32%	11%
7	MANSPERGER Leena	-	1%	5%	20%	36%	30%	9%
8	YU Zhiang	-	2%	15%	36%	35%	11%
9	KHAN Alissa	1%	7%	26%	39%	23%	5%
10	LIGH Erenei J.	-	1%	7%	27%	43%	23%
11	LEE Sophia	-	1%	11%	33%	39%	16%
12	WANG yining	1%	11%	29%	35%	20%	4%
13	LOO Kaitlyn	1%	15%	37%	33%	13%	2%
14	SO Catelyn	-	-	3%	16%	34%	34%	13%
15	CHEN Jessica	5%	26%	39%	24%	6%	1%
16	DONG Angel	-	2%	12%	33%	36%	15%	2%
17	ZHANG Sophie	-	2%	13%	34%	37%	14%
18	JOHNSON Dagny L.	-	2%	10%	29%	39%	20%
19	ZENG Sarah	-	2%	13%	34%	36%	14%	1%
20	BAWA Anahat	12%	34%	35%	16%	3%	-
21	SADOVA Olga	-	1%	11%	33%	39%	16%
22	YUAN Greta	-	1%	9%	29%	42%	20%
23	SLOBODSKY Sasha L.	-	3%	17%	38%	32%	10%
24	LOPEZ-ONA Mia	22%	40%	27%	9%	1%	-
25	MONTORIO Lily M.	-	14%	37%	34%	13%	2%
26	MARYASH Samantha	1%	5%	21%	36%	29%	8%
27	MALEK Zolie	7%	27%	36%	22%	6%	1%
28	REN Xinling	6%	24%	37%	25%	7%	-
29	MERCHANT Aishwarya	3%	21%	38%	27%	9%	1%	-
30	OBRADOVIC Ana	4%	19%	35%	29%	11%	1%
31	NAYAK Esha	8%	29%	37%	21%	4%	-
32	HORVITZ Jacqueline	42%	42%	14%	2%	-	-	-
33	GOMERMAN Sophia	-	3%	15%	33%	32%	14%	2%
34	NAYAK Anika	1%	8%	31%	38%	19%	4%	-
35	LAMEDICA Ava	7%	34%	39%	17%	3%	-
36	MYAT Chloe	1%	28%	42%	23%	5%	-
37	NAYAK Antara	63%	32%	5%	-	-	-
38	DAVIS Jordan	8%	28%	37%	21%	5%	-
39	LEUNG Ashlyn K.	10%	35%	37%	15%	3%	-
40	RESTREPO URREGO Laura	9%	33%	36%	18%	4%	-	-
41	STAFFORD Lillian	30%	47%	19%	3%	-	-	-
42	LI Alexis	34%	43%	19%	4%	-	-
43	KHERA Anya	91%	8%	-	-	-	-
44	ONG Lauren	37%	48%	14%	2%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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