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2023 Winter Thrust RYC/RJCC

Y-14 Women's Foil

Sunday, February 5, 2023 at 3:00 PM

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Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CHEN Renee	-	-	-	-	2%	20%	78%
2	CHO Emily (Euran)	-	-	-	4%	29%	67%
3	ZELDIN Nadia	-	1%	9%	30%	41%	18%
3	PAULUS Sloane E.	-	-	-	3%	27%	69%
5	LI Eleanor	-	-	2%	16%	43%	39%
6	KAPRAN Anastasia	-	1%	7%	27%	43%	22%
7	LI Han (Helina)	-	1%	6%	25%	43%	25%
8	WANG Amabel	-	-	1%	8%	40%	51%
9	GREENLEAF Ella	-	-	4%	24%	51%	20%
10	WANG Joanna	-	1%	10%	34%	41%	13%
11	HARRIS Julia	-	1%	7%	27%	43%	22%
12	CHEN Sophie	2%	14%	36%	35%	12%	1%
13	BERGEL Daphne	-	4%	20%	40%	32%	5%
14	CAVANAGH Emma	2%	16%	38%	34%	9%	1%
15	CAI Ilana	3%	19%	38%	30%	9%	1%
16	ROZPEDOWSKI Claire	-	1%	11%	38%	42%	8%
17	SHERLOCK Gabriella	2%	14%	33%	34%	15%	3%	-
18	REZA Fukaina	1%	11%	30%	35%	19%	4%	-
19	LIN Yunong	1%	10%	30%	37%	18%	3%
20	HUANG Sophie	3%	19%	42%	29%	7%	-
21	MCFARLANE Asha	1%	14%	39%	34%	11%	1%
22	LI Savannah	12%	38%	35%	13%	2%	-
23	HUSSIAN Annabelle	4%	21%	38%	28%	8%	1%
24	LIU Caydence	-	6%	29%	45%	18%	1%
25	LI Xiang (Shining)	10%	33%	38%	17%	2%	-
26	BING Charlotte	-	4%	24%	42%	25%	5%
27	LEE Allison	37%	45%	16%	2%	-	-
28	DIMATULAC Elise Ann	-	5%	19%	35%	30%	10%	1%
29	ORRINGER Lottie	-	1%	6%	23%	40%	27%	3%
30	LI Yixin Catherine	22%	41%	27%	9%	1%	-	-
31	ZAMLYNNY Maya	1%	11%	31%	37%	17%	3%
32	CARON Josie	13%	36%	34%	14%	3%	-	-
33	KIM Claire	3%	17%	38%	32%	9%	1%
34	JANSSEN Juliane	18%	40%	31%	10%	1%	-
35	SHANG Arianna	20%	42%	30%	8%	1%	-
36	ZHANG Zoey	25%	42%	25%	7%	1%	-
37	HAND Sadie	45%	42%	11%	1%	-	-
38	BAULIN Zoya	16%	40%	33%	11%	1%	-
39	TSE Isabel	21%	49%	25%	5%	-	-
40	JIN Amie	16%	39%	32%	11%	2%	-
41	JIN Sophie	34%	43%	19%	4%	-	-
42	WANG Selina	24%	49%	23%	4%	-	-
42	MOON Eleni	24%	43%	25%	6%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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