Cascade Clash SYC

Y-12 Men's Épée

Saturday, February 4, 2023 at 8:00 AM

Northwest Fencing Center - Tigard, OR, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SHAN Junzhe	-	-	-	-	1%	17%	81%
2	LU Jacob	-	-	-	1%	10%	37%	51%
3	DODDAPANENI Aarav	-	-	2%	10%	31%	41%	17%
3	TAI Edison	-	-	-	1%	9%	36%	55%
5	ZHAO Michael(Junyi)	-	1%	13%	40%	37%	8%
6	WANG aaron	-	3%	17%	37%	33%	10%
7	TANG Zheng	-	2%	10%	26%	36%	22%	4%
8	KROPP Wesley	2%	12%	32%	37%	16%	1%
9	VAN JAARSVELD Leo	1%	10%	28%	36%	20%	5%	-
10	MAZAHERI Fletcher	-	1%	11%	33%	39%	16%
11	ZHOU Shawn	-	1%	8%	30%	42%	19%
12	WU Matthew	17%	42%	31%	9%	1%	-
13	LEE Daniel	-	4%	17%	34%	32%	12%	1%
14	YAO Tristan	-	1%	9%	28%	40%	21%	1%
15	KIM Remington	1%	10%	27%	34%	21%	6%	-
16	WANG Devin	1%	11%	34%	36%	16%	3%
17	DONG Haiyi	-	-	-	4%	19%	44%	33%
18	NAIR Sujit	1%	5%	20%	35%	30%	10%
19	HSU Joshua	-	1%	6%	22%	38%	28%	5%
20	LIU Zicheng	17%	37%	31%	12%	2%	-	-
21	SRINIVASAN Sanat Ram	6%	26%	38%	24%	7%	1%	-
22	GOWDA Suyog	-	2%	13%	34%	37%	14%
23	GUO Woody	4%	20%	34%	28%	11%	2%
24	MA Nolan	-	1%	9%	28%	39%	21%	2%
25	JIANG Aaron	3%	15%	32%	31%	15%	3%	-
26	ROBERTS Arthur	2%	17%	40%	31%	9%	1%
27	RUBIN Nathan	-	4%	17%	35%	33%	11%
28	PATEL Krish	-	3%	16%	36%	34%	12%
29	LEWIS Michael	2%	12%	29%	33%	19%	5%	-
30	LI Timothy	33%	42%	20%	4%	-	-	-
31	KIM Evan	6%	23%	36%	26%	9%	1%	-
32	WONG Alexander	-	4%	16%	33%	33%	13%	2%
33	MYRAH Devin	19%	45%	28%	7%	1%	-
34	LU Ian	5%	22%	36%	26%	9%	1%	-
35	LEE Joshua	8%	29%	37%	20%	5%	1%	-
36	JAMES Kaden	4%	21%	37%	28%	9%	1%	-
37	WU MiEr	14%	34%	33%	16%	4%	-
38	AMIRAULT Jacob	6%	25%	37%	24%	7%	1%
39	NGUYEN Ethan	2%	14%	34%	34%	14%	2%	-
40	YUE Bryan	16%	36%	31%	14%	3%	-	-
41	ST CLAIR Soren	2%	14%	33%	33%	14%	3%	-
42	BREILING Sebastian	5%	21%	35%	28%	11%	2%	-
43	MAZAHERI Theodore	27%	41%	24%	7%	1%	-	-
44	MEHROTRA Darsh	32%	44%	20%	4%	-	-
45	YOON Jonathan	41%	43%	14%	2%	-	-
46	LI Bryan	5%	24%	37%	25%	8%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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