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Senior Mixed Foil

Saturday, February 11, 2023 at 8:00 AM

Vivo Fencing Club - Haverhill, MA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	DAVIDSON Elliot	-	-	-	4%	21%	44%	31%
2	LI Aaron	-	-	1%	12%	38%	38%	11%
3	LIU Derek	-	-	-	2%	20%	79%
3	POPESCU Tudor	-	-	-	5%	24%	48%	23%
5	LACHAPELLE Cole	-	1%	5%	18%	36%	31%	10%
6	BISHOP Henry	-	5%	22%	36%	27%	8%	1%
7	WANG Sabrina	5%	20%	32%	27%	13%	3%	-
8	PUOPOLO Mia	39%	40%	17%	4%	-	-	-
9	XU Ethan	-	-	2%	12%	32%	38%	16%
10	WILSON Samuel	-	2%	10%	26%	35%	22%	5%
11	CHREKY Jacob	-	-	-	2%	23%	48%	27%
12	MCQUIDE Elliot	1%	7%	29%	43%	19%	1%
13	YANG Dylan	3%	21%	43%	27%	6%	-
14	WANG Rory	-	1%	8%	31%	43%	15%	2%
15	VO Jonathan	-	3%	18%	36%	30%	11%	1%
16	DJONOUMA Toyohm	-	2%	11%	29%	36%	19%	3%
18	WOODTHORPE Michael	-	-	-	4%	18%	41%	37%
19	ROWAN Danny	2%	12%	30%	35%	17%	4%	-
20	PETINO Leonardo	1%	7%	28%	44%	20%	-	-
21	THOMPSON Samuel	1%	9%	32%	40%	16%	2%	-
22	WENGER Caleb	2%	20%	39%	29%	9%	1%	-
23	HO Jor Sam	-	4%	19%	35%	30%	11%	1%
24	LOZADA RODRIGUEZ Gabriel	-	2%	16%	41%	36%	4%
25	TIBBETTS Justin	15%	46%	31%	7%	1%	-
26	MARSHALL Henry	7%	30%	40%	20%	3%	-	-
27	DODDAPANENI Vindhya	2%	27%	43%	22%	5%	-	-
28	STAFFORD Gareth	12%	36%	35%	14%	2%	-	-
29	D'ANGELO Connor	26%	54%	18%	2%	-	-	-
30	DEROSA Patrick	8%	46%	34%	10%	2%	-	-
31	DAILEY Noah	6%	26%	38%	23%	6%	1%	-
32	KOPACZ Lindsay	15%	36%	32%	13%	3%	-	-
33	IREZ Connor	39%	42%	16%	2%	-	-
34	IREZ Lyra	23%	45%	25%	6%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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