4th Annual Precision Invitational RYC and RJC

Y-12 Men's Épée

Friday, February 10, 2023 at 3:00 PM

Jump Beyond Sports - Torrance, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	WANG Joey	-	-	-	2%	13%	41%	44%
2	LIANG Donny	-	1%	5%	19%	36%	31%	9%
3	RODOCANACHI Hector	-	-	-	4%	20%	44%	32%
3	WONG Baron	-	1%	10%	33%	42%	13%
5	LEE Royce	-	4%	18%	36%	32%	10%
6	MORIN-JIANG Jake	-	-	2%	12%	41%	46%
7	GUO Woody	5%	22%	35%	27%	10%	1%	-
8	AUYEUNG Aedan Ho lam	6%	24%	34%	25%	9%	2%	-
9	MAXU Tiger	1%	11%	33%	39%	15%	1%
10	FEI Victor	-	-	3%	15%	41%	41%
11	FU Adrian	-	3%	13%	30%	33%	17%	3%
12	RAHMAN Ali	-	1%	5%	19%	37%	32%	6%
13	WANG Devin	7%	26%	35%	23%	7%	1%
14	ENG Kyler	-	-	4%	17%	37%	34%	9%
15	CHAN JR Jason	-	2%	12%	30%	38%	18%
16	HSU Joshua	-	4%	16%	31%	31%	15%	3%
17	RONG Gordon	-	-	1%	8%	29%	43%	18%
18	KIM Remington	1%	10%	29%	37%	20%	3%
19	RONG Marcus	1%	6%	20%	33%	28%	11%	2%
20	WU Johnny y.	-	1%	10%	29%	38%	18%	3%
21	OBERDERFER Viktor	2%	15%	34%	32%	13%	2%	-
22	WANG Lucas	2%	12%	31%	35%	17%	3%	-
23	CHEN Aiden	1%	11%	29%	36%	19%	3%
24	WU Nathan	-	2%	10%	29%	37%	19%	3%
25	DENG HAOYU	-	3%	14%	30%	33%	18%	4%
26	GADHVI Darius	5%	22%	34%	26%	10%	2%	-
27	XUE Michael	8%	29%	37%	21%	5%	-
28	DU Evan	12%	37%	36%	14%	2%	-
29	SCHWARTZMAN Ethan	6%	22%	34%	26%	10%	2%	-
30	MANA Sameer	-	3%	14%	30%	33%	17%	3%
31	SHI jingxuan	1%	6%	19%	31%	28%	13%	3%
32	WOOLCOCK Cash	5%	25%	39%	24%	6%	1%	-
33	LIU Max	6%	25%	37%	24%	7%	1%
34	MOSLEY Wally	2%	14%	33%	33%	15%	3%	-
35	MA Ciel	4%	22%	37%	27%	9%	1%
36	WONG Alexander	5%	21%	35%	27%	10%	1%
37	RAHMAN Zayd	6%	28%	39%	21%	5%	-
38	MARZBANI Zehl	15%	35%	31%	14%	3%	-	-
39	LIM Marcus	21%	40%	28%	9%	1%	-	-
40	FERRIERE Theo	6%	27%	38%	22%	6%	1%	-
41	PISCITELLO Aleksandr	34%	42%	19%	4%	-	-	-
42	MILLER Xavier	1%	10%	30%	37%	18%	4%	-
43	MA kevin	15%	38%	33%	12%	2%	-	-
44	KURUGANTI Vivaan	25%	42%	25%	7%	1%	-
45	LIU Aiden	28%	43%	23%	5%	-	-
46	WONG Preston	3%	23%	42%	26%	6%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.