4th Annual Precision Invitational RYC and RJC

Y-14 Men's Foil

Sunday, February 12, 2023 at 12:00 PM

Jump Beyond Sports - Torrance, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	DINSAY Kristjan	-	-	-	1%	9%	36%	55%
2	NGUYEN Martin	-	-	2%	13%	41%	44%
3	YI William	-	-	2%	13%	40%	45%
3	PINCHENG Yao	-	1%	8%	26%	38%	24%	4%
5	PARK Ryan	-	-	1%	7%	28%	44%	20%
6	TSAY Jordan R.	-	3%	18%	37%	32%	10%	1%
7	SOTO-ULEV Aden A.	-	-	-	-	5%	29%	66%
8	TULYAG Azim	1%	7%	29%	39%	21%	3%
9	KAWADA Sebastien	-	2%	13%	33%	37%	15%
10	KIM Aiden	-	-	-	4%	19%	44%	32%
11	CHEN Matthew	-	4%	18%	35%	31%	12%	1%
12	LOZANO Veyron Jericho	-	5%	20%	35%	29%	10%	1%
13	BIELER Mason	-	6%	27%	40%	23%	4%
14	GORDON William L.	-	2%	14%	36%	34%	12%	1%
15	PARK David	1%	9%	30%	37%	19%	4%	-
16	ZHONG Maxwell	25%	47%	23%	5%	-	-
17	LIU William	-	3%	16%	34%	32%	13%	1%
18	BAE Eugene	-	2%	11%	31%	37%	16%	2%
19	FANG Jaden	-	4%	18%	36%	32%	11%
19	DENG David	3%	17%	35%	32%	12%	1%
21	TSOI Spencer	3%	17%	36%	31%	12%	2%
22	ZHANG Jacob	-	5%	20%	37%	30%	7%
23	CHOI Ethan	-	5%	20%	36%	30%	9%
24	MORTON Joshua	-	5%	23%	40%	27%	5%
25	ZHAN Kevin	15%	36%	33%	13%	2%	-
26	CHANG Nathan	16%	39%	31%	12%	2%	-
27	YUE Jackson	2%	15%	34%	32%	14%	3%	-
28	SHORTER David Alexander	19%	41%	30%	9%	1%	-	-
29	MANIKTALA Suvir	1%	10%	32%	37%	17%	3%	-
30	CHUN Dashel	9%	30%	37%	20%	4%	-
31	ORNELAS Matteo	8%	28%	37%	22%	5%	-
32	LEE Daniel	12%	35%	35%	15%	3%	-	-
33	DEJOURNETT Jacob	36%	44%	17%	3%	-	-	-
34	UPENDER West	34%	45%	18%	3%	-	-
35	ZHANG Andrew	22%	41%	28%	8%	1%	-	-
36	DANIEL Nikith	22%	41%	27%	8%	1%	-
37	HUANG Nathan	18%	40%	30%	10%	2%	-	-
38	FOY Grant	19%	44%	28%	8%	1%	-	-
39	PEAKE Santiago	2%	16%	34%	33%	13%	2%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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