1st Annual Bruce Capin Memorial Brawl

Senior Mixed Foil

Saturday, February 11, 2023 at 8:00 AM

Southwest Recreation Center - Gainesville, FL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	OH Sean	-	-	-	4%	33%	63%
2	CHO Justin	-	-	5%	26%	46%	24%
3	BRUCE Roman	-	-	-	7%	38%	55%
3	REYES Manuel	-	-	-	2%	21%	77%
5	TANT Kenneth	-	-	-	5%	44%	51%
6	LIAO Anthony	-	-	4%	24%	56%	17%
7	GONZALEZ Oliver	-	7%	27%	39%	22%	4%
8	LOVE Georgina	-	-	3%	40%	57%
9	LEWIS Jared	-	-	-	4%	30%	66%
10	STORER Alex	-	6%	29%	46%	19%
11	GALLUCCI Julianna	-	7%	26%	39%	23%	4%
12	OROZCO Francis	-	3%	19%	42%	30%	6%
13	LIVINGSTON Sean	10%	33%	37%	17%	3%	-
14	CHOWDHURY Arman	3%	21%	44%	31%	2%	-
15	IRWIN Peter	-	-	1%	12%	54%	33%
16	PICKENS Grace	19%	41%	31%	9%	1%	-
17	BIWANG Aeron	15%	37%	33%	13%	2%	-
18	MYNATT Marcus	3%	33%	45%	18%	2%	-
19	WEDDLE Carson	-	-	6%	36%	46%	12%
20	WU Velyn	1%	11%	32%	39%	17%	-
21	SIMPSON Bradley	-	4%	19%	38%	31%	9%
22	ISLAM Fahim	5%	30%	47%	17%	-
23	JIANG Nicole	1%	7%	29%	45%	18%	1%
23	SUNDOWN Shaune-Anthony	8%	32%	41%	18%	2%	-
25	MACK Jacob	6%	31%	44%	17%	2%	-
26	NAMM Emily	10%	36%	40%	13%	-	-
26	ALIZO Diego	-	5%	22%	40%	29%	4%
28	ARIANAS Elias	10%	34%	39%	16%	1%	-
29	TORRES Alana	20%	41%	30%	9%	1%	-
30	ABABON Adam	13%	70%	16%	1%	-	-
31	PARISH Levi	15%	37%	33%	13%	2%	-
32	RANDAZZO Nurin	20%	49%	29%	3%	-	-
33	HUSSEY Aidan	20%	48%	28%	4%	-
34	LEE Andrew	18%	41%	31%	9%	1%	-
35	PRIDGEON Cole	1%	11%	31%	36%	18%	3%
36	GONZALEZ Julianna	12%	35%	36%	15%	2%	-
37	VASSALLO Angela	21%	41%	29%	8%	1%	-
38	JAVATE Ryan	41%	44%	14%	1%	-
39	LAKHEERAM Kyla	39%	45%	14%	2%	-	-
40	ROBINSON Gabriel	10%	35%	38%	15%	2%	-
41	VICTOR Maya	12%	37%	37%	13%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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