W&M Conomikes-Gutenburg Open 2023

Div III Mixed Épée

Saturday, February 25, 2023 at 1:00 PM

William & Mary Adair Gym - Williamsburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	WALLACE James	-	-	2%	10%	30%	40%	18%
2	ROSS Connor	3%	20%	45%	26%	5%	-
3	ANDERSON Derek M.	-	-	6%	30%	45%	19%
3	MORTIMER Gavin	-	-	4%	16%	34%	34%	13%
5	HENDERSON Matthew	-	-	1%	9%	36%	54%
6	HERMES Henry	-	2%	15%	39%	34%	9%
7	ANDERSON Dean	-	-	5%	24%	44%	26%
8	MONTESI Eric	-	2%	12%	30%	34%	18%	3%
9	CHEMEZOV Trent	-	5%	21%	34%	27%	10%	2%
10	PILIPOWSKYJ Luke	-	1%	11%	37%	43%	9%
11	WALLACE George	-	-	2%	16%	44%	37%
12	WHITE Myles	-	2%	9%	26%	35%	23%	5%
13	SMALLWOOD Jaylon	-	3%	15%	32%	33%	15%	3%
14	KIM Joshua	-	4%	23%	45%	24%	3%
15	TANG Justin	-	3%	16%	41%	34%	6%
16	NIEMI Otto	-	3%	14%	30%	33%	17%	3%
17	ASBY Will	1%	11%	28%	34%	20%	5%	1%
18	JOHNSON Alex	-	6%	28%	48%	16%	1%
19	KRONAUGE Andersen	1%	5%	19%	33%	29%	12%	2%
20	SMITH Gwyneth	2%	49%	38%	9%	1%	-
21	WEIDMAN Jess	-	5%	20%	35%	29%	10%	1%
22	DAVIS Daniel	-	-	3%	14%	32%	35%	15%
23	MCDOWELL Finn	-	4%	21%	36%	28%	10%	1%
24	JHA Ritika	-	2%	12%	28%	33%	20%	5%
25	HUFFORD Aoife	7%	34%	39%	16%	3%	-
26	BARTLETT Lauren	17%	41%	30%	10%	1%	-	-
27	CHOO Christopher Y.	-	8%	27%	35%	22%	6%	1%
28	SMITH Christopher	-	4%	16%	33%	32%	14%	1%
29	LEE Benjamin	11%	42%	34%	12%	2%	-	-
30	LUNDEN Espen	59%	34%	7%	1%	-	-
31	SOUTHWORTH Connor	6%	55%	32%	6%	-	-
32	SARGEANT Jackson	7%	31%	38%	19%	4%	-	-
33	RICHARDSON Katie R.	18%	39%	30%	11%	2%	-	-
34	NGUYEN Jen	-	11%	37%	36%	14%	2%
35	MOORE Mary	5%	25%	39%	25%	6%	-
36	BADLANI Neel	9%	33%	37%	17%	4%	-	-
37	PARLETT Jennifer	41%	42%	15%	2%	-	-
38	BAKER Cassie	16%	37%	32%	13%	2%	-	-
39	JARRETT Leela	78%	20%	2%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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