W&M Conomikes-Gutenburg Open 2023

Senior Mixed Saber

Saturday, February 25, 2023 at 3:30 PM

William & Mary Adair Gym - Williamsburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SOUDERS Peter F.	-	-	-	-	-	-	100%
2	WOODWARD Connor	-	-	-	2%	13%	40%	45%
3	FENG Leo	-	-	-	3%	16%	42%	40%
3	SU Landon	-	-	-	7%	42%	51%
5	CHAVES Matthew J.	-	-	-	7%	52%	41%
6	DECK Tyson	-	-	3%	16%	41%	39%	-
7	QI JI	-	1%	10%	32%	41%	15%
8	FENKER William M.	-	-	-	7%	48%	45%
9	LIAO Siwen	-	-	-	5%	38%	57%
10	SEMP Brannon A.	-	1%	6%	22%	37%	28%	6%
11	CLARK Keagan	-	-	10%	38%	41%	12%
12	LE Tan	-	5%	22%	36%	27%	9%	1%
13	OTT Alexander	-	4%	24%	39%	25%	7%	-
14	STAM August M.	-	5%	28%	45%	20%	2%
15	CASSIDY Connor J.	1%	11%	50%	32%	6%	-
16	ABU-AJAJ Mohamed	6%	23%	36%	26%	8%	1%	-
17	LEE Matthew	1%	10%	28%	37%	21%	3%	-
18	DREHER Matthew	4%	21%	37%	27%	9%	1%	-
19	PETERS Nathan M.	-	1%	8%	27%	38%	22%	4%
20	MITCHELL Matthew	-	3%	17%	35%	32%	12%	1%
21	LAUDO Joseph	-	3%	20%	46%	30%	2%
22	SHIFFLETT Parker	2%	16%	41%	35%	6%	-
23	TRAYNOR Jake	7%	30%	43%	19%	1%	-
24	ROUADY Ryan	1%	17%	46%	30%	5%	-
25	SUTHERLAND Jr. Richard L.	1%	5%	21%	36%	28%	8%	-
26	BUNCHER Michael	-	2%	15%	34%	33%	14%	2%
27	PARCELL Colby	13%	34%	34%	16%	3%	-	-
28	ZANE Christopher	35%	44%	18%	3%	-	-
29	PHAM Matthew	14%	44%	34%	7%	-	-
30	BARR Corinne	48%	42%	9%	1%	-	-
31	REED Michael	7%	34%	39%	16%	3%	-	-
32	JACKSON Evan	63%	31%	6%	1%	-	-	-
33	LESTYAN Cat	43%	42%	13%	1%	-	-
34	URIBE David	5%	22%	37%	27%	8%	1%	-
35	KEESEE Devon	18%	51%	27%	4%	-	-
35	WILLIAMS Morgan	28%	54%	16%	2%	-	-
37	MARINO Edwin	4%	30%	47%	17%	2%	-	-
38	OHASHI Jax	4%	21%	36%	28%	10%	1%	-
39	WANG Kelley	23%	39%	27%	10%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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