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W&M Conomikes-Gutenburg Open 2023

Senior Mixed Épée

Sunday, February 26, 2023 at 9:00 AM

William & Mary Adair Gym - Williamsburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CLICK Aiden	-	-	-	-	7%	35%	57%
2	CHAWLA Armaan	-	-	-	5%	31%	55%	8%
3	CARTER Austin L.	-	1%	9%	26%	40%	24%
3	WOODLEY Colin	-	-	-	1%	12%	48%	39%
5	BAGHA Armin	-	1%	12%	42%	38%	7%
6	ZALEWSKI David	-	2%	12%	32%	37%	16%	1%
7	STEPHENS Corbin	-	2%	13%	34%	36%	13%	1%
8	PETERS Nathan M.	-	-	1%	8%	28%	42%	20%
9	O'HARA Keegan J.	-	-	-	1%	10%	39%	49%
9	COUGHLIN Nolan E.	-	-	2%	13%	39%	38%	8%
11	OTT James (Jimmy) P.	-	-	-	-	1%	20%	79%
12	HURST Palmer	-	2%	18%	40%	32%	8%
13	DIMMETT David C.	-	-	1%	8%	37%	54%
14	WHITE Myles	-	1%	10%	35%	42%	12%	1%
15	MONTESI Eric	2%	13%	35%	36%	13%	2%	-
16	GRESHAM Rebekah L.	-	2%	11%	26%	33%	21%	6%
17	ANDERSON Derek M.	-	2%	16%	34%	32%	13%	2%
18	GUMPRICH Joe P.	1%	6%	21%	35%	27%	10%	1%
19	ILLES Fanni	7%	25%	35%	24%	8%	1%
20	SCHAPIRO Jacob	-	1%	17%	42%	33%	8%
21	ROSS Connor	2%	16%	36%	34%	11%	1%	-
22	KUYLER Karl	-	1%	6%	20%	34%	29%	9%
23	ZOOK Evan D.	-	-	3%	19%	43%	30%	5%
24	ANDERSON Dean	-	-	5%	24%	42%	25%	4%
25	MURRAY-GRAMLICH Robert	-	6%	26%	39%	23%	5%	-
26	HENDERSON Matthew	-	2%	27%	44%	23%	4%
27	BARTLETT Lauren	5%	59%	32%	4%	-	-
28	ZANGA Kaitlyn	-	5%	20%	35%	29%	11%	2%
29	ANDERSON Sr. Danny R.	1%	10%	30%	36%	19%	4%	-
30	SMITH Christopher	9%	35%	41%	14%	1%	-
31	ASBY Will	4%	25%	41%	24%	5%	-	-
32	GREEAR Colin	46%	40%	12%	1%	-	-	-
33	LE Tan	-	5%	20%	36%	28%	9%	1%
34	TANG Justin	22%	40%	27%	9%	1%	-	-
35	RUSSELL Tallis	1%	27%	42%	24%	6%	1%	-
36	NIEMI Otto	17%	38%	32%	12%	2%	-	-
37	BADLANI Neel	38%	42%	16%	3%	-	-	-
38	WALLACE George	1%	12%	37%	39%	10%	1%
39	SMALLWOOD Jaylon	-	4%	21%	44%	27%	4%	-
40	HUNTER Kingsley	7%	33%	40%	18%	3%	-	-
41	SARGEANT Jackson	10%	39%	38%	11%	1%	-	-
42	MCDOWELL Finn	9%	38%	40%	12%	1%	-	-
43	LUNDEN Espen	26%	47%	23%	3%	-	-
44	SMITH Gwyneth	51%	38%	10%	1%	-	-	-
44	SOUTHWORTH Connor	24%	47%	24%	5%	1%	-	-
46	PARLETT Jennifer	70%	26%	3%	-	-	-
47	SIMS Martin L.	26%	47%	23%	4%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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