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San Diego Senior Cup #5 w/ D&Under Epee

Senior Men's Épée

Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 12:00 PM

Carmel Valley - San Diego, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	HIGGINS Branford	100%	100%	99%	93%	64%	19%
2	SODERBERG Alex Z.	100%	100%	99%	92%	55%
3	ZHOU Alec Q.	100%	98%	81%	42%	8%
3	ZHOU Stanley Q.	100%	98%	86%	52%	14%
5	GAINES Aaron	100%	100%	100%	98%	83%	39%
6	CLAWSON Brian C.	100%	94%	48%	10%	1%
7	JOYCE David	100%	97%	75%	35%	8%	1%
8	BAILEY Creston P.	100%	100%	93%	57%	11%
9	POLAKOSKI David R.	100%	100%	98%	83%	42%
10	ALEXANDER Chuck	100%	99%	92%	65%	22%
11	ZAROTSKY Ronald	100%	77%	34%	7%	1%
12	YAO Derek (Shunyu)	100%	83%	42%	10%	1%
13	KURITZ Marc M.	100%	95%	71%	30%	4%
14	WESTON Tom	100%	97%	78%	39%	8%
15	HEWITT Frank F.	100%	99%	78%	32%	4%
16	HILLSTROM Nathan	100%	100%	88%	53%	15%	1%
17	CHAO Warren	100%	96%	68%	26%	4%	-
18	DILLON Anik	100%	34%	4%	-	-	-
19	MCDONALD Ethan	100%	80%	39%	9%	1%
20	SETTE Alessandro	100%	75%	31%	6%	-
21	HU Yingli	100%	26%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.