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Y-10 Men's Foil

Saturday, March 18, 2023 at 12:00 PM

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Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CHEN Hanson	-	-	-	1%	10%	38%	50%
2	GRIGORIEV Michael	-	-	-	2%	13%	39%	46%
3	XIA Philip	3%	14%	30%	31%	17%	5%	-
3	HUYNH Matthew	-	3%	15%	35%	35%	12%
5	NOVIKOV Yann	1%	9%	30%	42%	18%	1%
6	XIAN kevin	-	2%	11%	32%	39%	16%
7	REN Ryan	-	-	1%	5%	19%	41%	34%
8	SHARMA Ari	8%	31%	38%	18%	4%	-
9	ZHAI Derrick	-	1%	11%	35%	39%	14%
10	SIU Max	-	6%	21%	35%	28%	10%	1%
11	SHOU Raymond	-	2%	10%	27%	35%	21%	4%
12	KINGSLEY Griffin	-	1%	8%	27%	41%	23%
13	ZHANG Aaron	3%	16%	31%	30%	15%	4%	-
14	CHAE Emmett	1%	8%	26%	38%	23%	5%	-
15	ULYSSE Jacob	1%	7%	21%	33%	27%	11%	1%
16	HAN Jiaren	3%	18%	34%	30%	13%	2%	-
17	JAZWINSKI Ryan	-	-	1%	6%	22%	41%	30%
18	CHOI Hunter	2%	11%	27%	33%	21%	6%	1%
19	LIU Gene	2%	12%	27%	32%	20%	6%	1%
20	SONG Enoch	2%	16%	35%	32%	13%	2%
21	CHONG Trevor	-	4%	18%	35%	32%	10%
22	SHEN Lucas	4%	19%	35%	29%	12%	2%	-
23	MA Lucas	1%	7%	25%	36%	24%	7%	1%
24	HUANG Dalynn	-	3%	13%	31%	34%	17%	3%
25	XIA Vincent	4%	19%	33%	29%	13%	3%	-
26	CAO Joshua	7%	31%	38%	19%	4%	-
27	CHANG Parker	-	3%	17%	36%	33%	11%
28	ZHANG Ethan	-	2%	13%	34%	37%	14%
29	GUGALA Frank	3%	16%	33%	31%	14%	2%	-
30	KIM Daniel	1%	9%	25%	34%	23%	7%	-
31	RAY Callum	1%	5%	18%	32%	30%	13%	2%
32	HUYNH Kaleb	6%	23%	34%	25%	10%	2%	-
33	GAO Wesley	7%	30%	40%	19%	4%	-
34	KIM Ian	38%	43%	16%	3%	-	-
35	HU Michael	25%	43%	25%	6%	1%	-
35	LEE Wilder	-	1%	9%	35%	41%	14%
37	CONVERSO-PARSONS Alexander	9%	28%	34%	21%	7%	1%	-
38	TU Nathan	1%	7%	23%	34%	25%	9%	1%
39	HONG Thomas	9%	34%	36%	17%	4%	-	-
40	MACK Julian	35%	41%	19%	4%	1%	-	-
41	PARISH-MORRIS Jay	-	1%	7%	24%	38%	25%	5%
42	NAYAK Saideep	1%	19%	39%	30%	9%	1%
43	SINGH Jai Anand	14%	38%	34%	12%	2%	-
44	CHONG Cooper	37%	42%	18%	3%	-	-	-
45	RICHMAN Aaron	40%	41%	16%	3%	-	-
46	POLEBOYINA Aarav	1%	10%	31%	36%	19%	4%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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