IFC 2023 Spring Classic

Senior Mixed Foil

Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 2:45 PM

Indianapolis Fencing Club - Indianapolis, IN, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	PAI Lakshan K.	-	2%	13%	41%	45%
2	PALMA Matthew Dominic	-	-	2%	13%	41%	44%
3	WANG Eric J.	-	-	3%	16%	42%	40%
3	VAN BUREN Brett J.	-	-	2%	16%	42%	40%
5	FORTUNE Alexander J.	-	-	1%	6%	34%	59%
6	NYKAMP Caleb	-	3%	22%	46%	26%	3%
7	CLAYPOOL Conner	-	1%	11%	36%	42%	10%
8	SANTOS Carlos R.	-	1%	16%	41%	34%	8%
9	PINKERTON Joseph H.	-	1%	8%	36%	45%	10%
10	ROBINSON-LEVANT Bryson	-	2%	23%	44%	27%	4%
11	SORRENTINO Salvatore	7%	30%	40%	20%	3%
12	SON Eric	-	1%	14%	47%	33%	5%
13	BOYKO Miles	-	7%	34%	42%	16%	1%
14	LIM Lance Jeremiah	7%	29%	40%	20%	4%
15	MARCUS Peter	1%	10%	34%	38%	16%	2%
16	WANG Jim	1%	11%	38%	39%	11%	1%
17	DENMAN Matthew L.	-	1%	12%	37%	39%	11%
18	DUNLAP Ian	17%	46%	30%	6%	-	-
19	SOARE Maria Elena	39%	49%	12%	-	-	-
20	DVORAK Ryan	22%	49%	24%	5%	-	-
21	NIMMO Joshua	6%	28%	42%	22%	2%
22	KOZINSKI Allison E.	4%	23%	38%	27%	7%	1%
23	BERNWANGER Phillip	33%	52%	14%	1%	-	-
24	BAILEY Lauren	4%	29%	48%	17%	2%	-
25	LEE Claire L.	23%	43%	27%	7%	-
26	FENG Lauren	39%	46%	14%	1%	-	-
27	MALVESTUTO Evelyn	26%	42%	25%	7%	1%	-
28	HAAS Zane	12%	53%	30%	5%	-	-
29	LEVANT Briea	45%	44%	11%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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