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Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	KIM ELIJAH	-	-	3%	16%	43%	38%
2	MEHAN Nicholas	-	-	-	1%	7%	34%	58%
3	BERA Enzo	-	1%	13%	45%	41%
3	CHUNG Connor	-	-	1%	9%	28%	41%	20%
5	BONETTI Brayden	-	1%	6%	23%	39%	27%	4%
6	SIDDIQUI Shayan	-	-	1%	8%	27%	42%	22%
7	WITCZAK Mateus	-	4%	17%	34%	31%	12%	2%
8	GERSTMANN Max T.	-	2%	14%	37%	36%	11%
9	CHAMBERS Miles	-	-	-	4%	21%	45%	29%
10	ALAVE Kyle	-	2%	12%	32%	38%	16%
11	LIN Philip T.	-	4%	19%	37%	31%	9%
12	PINTO Marcus	-	5%	22%	40%	27%	5%
13	HENDERSON Lucas	-	1%	11%	34%	38%	14%	2%
14	ANDRES Michael	-	-	-	5%	23%	46%	26%
15	WANG Max	-	3%	17%	36%	32%	11%	1%
16	KANIA Alexander	2%	15%	39%	32%	10%	1%	-
17	KATZ Ryan	-	3%	21%	50%	26%
18	SRIVATS Vedh	-	4%	20%	37%	30%	9%
19	SONG Aidan	1%	16%	42%	31%	9%	1%	-
20	HUA Michael	3%	30%	47%	18%	2%
21	WANG Max	1%	11%	30%	35%	18%	4%	-
22	CAO Ray	-	2%	16%	39%	32%	10%	1%
23	SUN Andrew	4%	22%	40%	27%	7%	1%
24	CHEN Lucas	1%	12%	33%	35%	16%	3%
25	YOOK Isaac	-	2%	12%	32%	36%	16%	2%
26	WANG Yitong Tom	44%	40%	14%	2%	-	-	-
27	PARKILA Lukas	7%	42%	40%	10%	1%
28	TURNER Benjamin	21%	44%	27%	7%	1%	-
29	HIBINO Uta	4%	26%	39%	24%	6%	1%
30	WELLER Noah	28%	44%	23%	5%	-	-
31	NAFTALI Ori	3%	41%	40%	13%	2%	-	-
32	AO Christopher	1%	9%	28%	36%	20%	5%	-
33	CHANG Timothy	6%	31%	38%	20%	5%	-	-
34	RAVOOR Suvir	39%	43%	15%	2%	-	-	-
35	HOLLINGER Caden	71%	26%	3%	-	-
36	STOIA Jack	87%	13%	1%	-	-	-	-
37	RAVOOR Sahas	63%	31%	5%	-	-	-
38	DU Shengrui	15%	41%	31%	10%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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