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Division 1 Championships/April NAC

Veteran Men's Saber

Monday, April 24, 2023 at 9:00 AM

America's Center Convention Complex - St. Louis, MO, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	KALLIO Jeffrey E.	-	-	-	4%	27%	46%	23%
2	THORNTON Ronald J.	-	-	-	-	1%	13%	87%
3	RUNYAN Joshua	-	-	1%	7%	37%	42%	13%
3	MATT Chris	-	-	-	1%	6%	31%	62%
5	MAKOGON Sergey	-	-	-	-	5%	33%	61%
6	KOPYLOV Dmitri	-	-	2%	13%	40%	45%
7	KRASNICH Mike	-	4%	19%	38%	31%	8%	-
8	ZIRKLE James	1%	7%	28%	39%	22%	4%
9	BUSH Joshua C.	-	-	-	2%	21%	48%	29%
10	LEAR Donald W.	-	4%	16%	33%	33%	14%	1%
11	ZOLLER Matthew	-	8%	29%	39%	20%	3%	-
12	CHU Kevin	1%	6%	23%	39%	26%	5%
13	PENTON Robert	-	-	2%	14%	41%	43%
14	SEIDEL Jonathan J.	-	-	2%	15%	41%	40%	3%
15	DUDNICK Christian	9%	30%	36%	20%	5%	1%	-
16	ANFORA Andrew T.	-	3%	14%	32%	34%	15%	2%
17	WAXLER Aaron M.	-	2%	16%	40%	33%	8%	-
18	PLONKA Derek	1%	15%	38%	35%	11%	1%
19	ESCUETA Jr Antonio V.	1%	6%	26%	39%	23%	4%
20	DASHNAW Stephen	-	-	1%	8%	37%	55%
21	DIRSMITH Benjamin J.	-	1%	11%	36%	39%	12%	-
22	ZIPPER Michael E.	-	1%	10%	33%	43%	12%
23	DAWSON Todd	24%	46%	24%	5%	-	-
24	BOYLAN John R.	18%	40%	31%	10%	1%	-
25	MARGIL David	23%	43%	27%	7%	1%	-
26	WILDMAN Steve	5%	25%	40%	24%	6%	-
27	CRETEN joachim	5%	30%	41%	20%	4%	-
28	SOSKINS Matt	2%	15%	32%	32%	16%	3%	-
29	HICHA Paul R.	1%	14%	43%	35%	6%	-	-
30	DAHL Chris	3%	20%	41%	29%	7%	-
31	MENNE Chris D.	5%	27%	39%	23%	6%	1%	-
32	MALNATI Donald H.	< 1%	4%	20%	40%	30%	6%
33	HECK Steven D.	-	-	1%	9%	32%	46%	12%
34	GRAFF Jon	1%	8%	25%	35%	24%	7%	-
35	MARTINEZ Mario D.	32%	45%	20%	4%	-	-
36	ELDER John	20%	49%	26%	5%	-	-	-
37	DI GENNARO John	2%	18%	43%	29%	7%	1%	-
38	MYERS Brent M.	-	6%	26%	40%	23%	4%
39	STONE Brad	58%	34%	7%	1%	-	-
40	HERNDON Jameson D.	2%	18%	38%	30%	10%	1%	-
40	CAROTHERS Michael B.	13%	46%	33%	8%	1%	-	-
42	STATEN Joseph	47%	42%	11%	1%	-	-	-
43	SZATHMARY Michael J.	1%	14%	42%	35%	7%	-	-
44	DANIELL Steven J.	57%	35%	7%	1%	-	-	-
45	PEREIRA Gabriel	61%	34%	5%	-	-	-	-
46	GORMLEY Peter J.	24%	41%	26%	8%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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