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AFM Youth Epee Cup - Event #3

Y-12 Men's Épée

Sunday, April 30, 2023 at 12:00 PM

AFM Sunnyvale - Sunnyvale, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CLAES Thomas	-	-	-	4%	20%	43%	33%
2	KOFMAN David	1%	11%	29%	36%	19%	4%
3	BUENAVENTURA Camden	-	4%	16%	30%	30%	15%	3%
3	ROBINSON Samuel	-	-	3%	13%	32%	37%	15%
5	MANA Arnav	-	-	2%	12%	31%	38%	17%
6	WANG Devin	-	-	3%	17%	36%	34%	10%
7	WU Steven	-	-	4%	21%	44%	31%
8	LEUNG Dylan	-	2%	12%	31%	37%	17%
9	LIU Max	7%	32%	40%	18%	3%
10	XIE Andrew	12%	37%	34%	14%	3%	-	< 1%
11	MA Ryan	-	2%	9%	24%	34%	24%	7%
12	TUBALTSEV Evan	-	3%	19%	44%	34%
13	SU Samuel	-	1%	8%	27%	41%	21%	2%
14	LOUIE Joseph	-	-	2%	10%	29%	39%	20%
15	CHANG Ray	-	5%	19%	35%	31%	10%
16	WONG Vansen	7%	25%	36%	24%	8%	1%	-
17	JAO Aaron	-	5%	22%	41%	27%	5%
18	DING Max	-	2%	14%	34%	37%	13%
19	GORDON David	-	4%	15%	31%	32%	15%	3%
20	GUO Luke	6%	27%	38%	22%	6%	1%	-
21	KHUSHRAJ Rohan	5%	28%	41%	22%	4%
22	MANA Sameer	-	1%	6%	19%	33%	30%	11%
23	SRIKANTH Hariharan	3%	14%	30%	31%	17%	4%	-
24	LYSENKO Timofei	-	2%	12%	32%	36%	16%	2%
25	LIU Xuyao	13%	34%	34%	16%	3%	-	-
26	AKHMEDIANOV Timur	-	2%	11%	30%	36%	18%	3%
27	WONG Aaron	-	4%	16%	32%	32%	14%	2%
28	ZHANG Luqi	6%	23%	34%	25%	10%	2%	-
29	MILLIKAN Aaron	1%	13%	36%	38%	12%
30	LUO Alvin (Yueyang) Y.	11%	31%	35%	18%	4%	-
32	LIN Daniel	7%	24%	34%	24%	9%	2%	-
33	STREAM Logan	5%	20%	33%	27%	12%	3%	-
34	ZHU Owen	7%	29%	39%	21%	5%	-
35	HUA Nolan	-	4%	18%	36%	31%	11%	1%
36	CHUNG Sawyer	8%	31%	38%	18%	4%	-	-
37	ZHANG William	15%	36%	32%	14%	3%	-	-
38	GUPTA Hemansh	42%	41%	14%	2%	-
39	YU Brandon	49%	40%	9%	1%	-	-
40	YU Haoyun Timothy	10%	30%	35%	20%	5%	-
41	XIE Elon	8%	27%	36%	22%	6%	1%
42	DESHPANDE Arihant	-	16%	40%	32%	10%	1%	-
43	SONG Joshua	2%	10%	25%	32%	22%	8%	1%
44	NARAYANUN Advay	34%	43%	19%	3%	-	-	-
45	TALATAM Arnav	1%	20%	41%	29%	8%	1%	-
46	SISODIA Shauryaditya	1%	29%	44%	22%	4%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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