Jeff Wolfe Long Island Challenge ROC 2023

Div I-A Men's Saber

Saturday, April 29, 2023 at 11:45 AM

Mission Fencing Center - Rocky Point, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	BIERNACKI Maciej L.	-	-	-	-	-	11%	88%
2	HARE John R.	-	-	-	-	4%	28%	67%
3	BARTOLO Domenic V.	-	-	-	2%	36%	62%
3	WONG Ryan	-	-	2%	16%	42%	40%
5	HAN Daniel Y.	-	-	2%	13%	38%	41%	7%
6	BARNETT Adam	-	-	-	-	4%	27%	69%
7	KIM-COGAN Ryan	-	-	1%	10%	61%	29%
8	MEDVEDEV Michail D.	-	2%	11%	34%	40%	13%
9	MCCARTHY Devan	-	4%	16%	33%	32%	13%	1%
10	CHUNG Connor	-	1%	11%	34%	38%	14%	1%
11	KATZ Ryan	1%	7%	23%	35%	26%	8%	1%
12	SAHAY Kenji	-	4%	21%	40%	29%	6%
13	MONTALVO Emmeric	4%	31%	41%	20%	4%	-
14	GONG Jerry	-	5%	23%	40%	27%	5%
15	RYAN Kai	2%	15%	32%	32%	15%	3%	-
16	LIN Philip T.	-	8%	32%	39%	18%	3%	-
17	CUSUMANO Neal	3%	17%	36%	32%	12%	2%	-
18	VILLARREAL Mateo	-	-	5%	21%	42%	31%	2%
19	CORTEZ Christopher	-	-	2%	14%	42%	41%
20	MANESCU Miron	4%	24%	43%	26%	2%	-
21	MATTOO Surya	2%	17%	39%	32%	9%	1%
22	BHATIA Ekam	2%	14%	34%	34%	14%	2%	-
23	HUROWITZ Max	-	2%	11%	32%	39%	16%	1%
24	LEE Andrew	1%	10%	31%	39%	17%	2%
25	CHENG Hong	1%	15%	38%	33%	12%	1%
26	MONTALVO ashur	18%	45%	29%	7%	1%	-
27	KOGAN Nikita	2%	15%	32%	32%	15%	3%	-
28	CHEN Jonathan	-	6%	29%	40%	21%	4%	-
29	YEUNG Jerry	13%	37%	34%	14%	2%	-	-
30	POSY Daniel	1%	8%	25%	35%	24%	7%	-
31	AMES Kylan	36%	41%	18%	4%	-	-	-
32	KMETA-SUAREZ Graysen	27%	43%	23%	6%	1%	-	-
33	PODDAR Shameek	11%	42%	37%	10%	-	-
34	TAUB Dylan	32%	43%	20%	4%	-	-
35	SEN Christian	3%	23%	45%	27%	2%	-
36	XU Justin	7%	45%	36%	11%	1%	-	-
37	SHELMIDINE Cole	73%	24%	3%	-	-	-
38	SHU Richard	75%	23%	2%	-	-	-	-
39	FENG Luke	42%	42%	14%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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